Increases in Arctic Extreme Climatic Events Are Linked to Negative Fitness Effects on the Local Biota.

The Arctic harbours uniquely adapted biodiversity and plays an important role in climate regulation. Strong warming trends in the terrestrial Arctic have been linked to an increase in aboveground biomass (Arctic greening) and community-wide shifts such as the northwards-expansion of boreal species (borealization). Whilst considerable efforts have been made to understand the effects of warming trends in average temperatures on Arctic biota, far fewer studies have focused on trends in extreme climate events and their biotic effects, which have been suggested to be particularly impactful during the Arctic winter months. Here, we present an analysis of trends in two ecologically relevant winter extreme events-extreme winter warming and rain-on-snow-followed by a meta-analysis on the evidence base for their effects on Arctic biota. We show a strong increase in extreme winter warming across the entire Arctic and high variability in rain-on-snow trends, with some regions recently experiencing rain-on-snow for the first time whilst others seeing a decrease in these events. Ultimately, both extreme events show significant changes in their characteristics and patterns of emergence. Our meta-analysis, encompassing 178 effect sizes across 17 studies and 49 species, demonstrates that extreme winter warming and rain-on-snow induce negative impacts on Arctic biota, with certain taxonomic groups-notably angiosperms and chordates (mostly vertebrates)-exhibiting higher sensitivity than others. Our study provides evidence for both emerging trends in Arctic winter extreme climate events and significant negative biotic effects of such events-which calls for attention to winter weather variability under climate change in the conservation of Arctic biodiversity, whilst highlighting important knowledge gaps.