Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40163740›Full record

ArticleAge and ageing2025

Development and external validation of the electronic frailty index 2 using routine primary care electronic health record data.

Kate Best, Farag Shuweihdi, Juan Carlos Bazo Alvarez, Samuel Relton, Christina Avgerinou, Danielle Nimmons, Irene Petersen, Maria Pujades-Rodriguez, Simon Paul Conroy, Kate Walters and 2 more

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Age and ageing, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  7. Observational
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  9. Frailty: new horizons in older patients needing surgery.Annals of the Royal College of Surgeons of England · 2026
    Article
  10. Why should we assess the degree of frailty in primary care?The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2026
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. FI-CGA and eFI-CGA in Frailty Care: a Scoping Review.Canadian geriatrics journal : CGJ · 2026
    Review
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Frailty and Cardiovascular Risk.European cardiology · 2026
    Review
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Kate BestUniversity of Leeds, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences - Academic Unit for Ageing and Stroke Research, Leeds, West Yorkshire, United Kingdom.
Farag ShuweihdiUniversity of Leeds, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, Leeds, West Yorkshire, United Kingdom.
Juan Carlos Bazo AlvarezUniversity College London, Research Department of Primary Care and Population Health, London, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Samuel ReltonUniversity of Leeds, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, Leeds, West Yorkshire, United Kingdom.
Christina AvgerinouUniversity College London, Department of Primary Care and Population Health, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-1445-1676
Danielle NimmonsUniversity College London Faculty of Population Health Sciences, Research Department of Primary Care and Population Health, London, United Kingdom.
Irene PetersenUniversity College London, Research Department of Primary Care and Population Health, London, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Maria Pujades-RodriguezUniversity of Leeds, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, Leeds, United Kingdom.
Simon Paul ConroyThe Royal London Hospital, Barts Health NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-4306-6064
Kate WaltersUniversity College London, Research Department of Primary Care and Population Health, London, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Robert M WestUniversity of Leeds, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences - Biostatistics, Leeds, West Yorkshire, United Kingdom.
Andrew CleggUniversity of Leeds - Academic Unit for Ageing & Stroke Research, Bradford Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Bradford, West Yorkshire, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-5972-1097

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe electronic frailty index (eFI) is nationally implemented into UK primary care electronic health record systems to support routine identification of frailty. The original eFI has some limitations such as equal weighting of deficit variables, lack of time constraints on variables known to resolve and definition of frailty category cut-points. We have developed and externally validated the eFI2 prediction model to predict the composite risk of home care package; hospital admission for fall/fracture; care home admission; or mortality within one year, addressing the limitations of the original eFI.

methodsLinked primary, secondary and social care data from two independent retrospective cohorts of adults aged ≥65 in 2018 was used; the population of Bradford using the Connected Bradford dataset (development cohort, 78 760 patients) and the population of Wales, from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank (external validation cohort, 660 417 patients). Candidate predictors included the original eFI variables, supplemented with variables informed by literature reviews and clinical expertise. The composite outcome was modelled using Cox regression.

resultsIn internal validation the model had excellent discrimination (C-index = 0.803, Nagelkerke's R2 = 0.0971) with good calibration (Calibration slope = 1.00). In external validation, the model had good discrimination (C-index = 0.723, Nagelkerke's R2 = 0.064), with some evidence of miscalibration (Calibration slope = 1.104).

conclusionsThe eFI2 demonstrates robust prediction for key frailty-related outcomes, improving on the original eFI. Our use of novel methodology to develop and validate the eFI2 will advance the field of frailty-related research internationally, setting a new methodological standard.

Indexed as

Electronic Health RecordsFrail ElderlyFrailtyGeriatric AssessmentPrimary Health CareAccidental FallsAgedAged, 80 and overFemaleHome Care ServicesHumansMalePredictive Value of TestsReproducibility of ResultsRetrospective StudiesRisk Assessmentelectronic health recordsfrailtyfrailty indexolder people

Identifiers

PMID40163740
PMCPMC11957239

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.