Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40156748›Full record

ArticleAdvances in therapy2025

The Composite Number Needed to Treat for Semaglutide in Populations with Overweight or Obesity and Established Cardiovascular Disease Without Diabetes.

Christopher Lübker, Jigish Bhavsar, Ruben Duque do Vale, Scott S Emerson, Emil Nørtoft, Jorge Plutzky, Geraint Roberts, Jens Magelund Tarp, A Michael Lincoff

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Advances in therapy, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It reports registered trial NCT03574597. Cited by 3 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT03574597 phase3completed

SELECT - Semaglutide Effects on Cardiovascular Outcomes in People With Overweight or Obesity

Ran2018Enrolled17,604Registered outcomes29Posted comparisons1ConditionsObesity, OverweightArmsPlacebo (semaglutide), semaglutide
PMID 33567185PMID 37952131PMID 32916609other papers from this trial
Open the trial in the graph
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Christopher LübkerNovo Nordisk A/S, Søborg, Denmark. cjlu@novonordisk.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3220-801X
Jigish BhavsarNovo Nordisk Inc., Plainsboro, NJ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0613-3571
Ruben Duque do ValeNovo Nordisk A/S, Søborg, Denmark.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6640-1945
Scott S EmersonDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2695-0165
Emil NørtoftNovo Nordisk A/S, Søborg, Denmark.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1450-8214
Jorge PlutzkyCardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7194-9876
Geraint RobertsHealth Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd, Cardiff, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2006-4581
Jens Magelund TarpNovo Nordisk A/S, Søborg, Denmark.
A Michael LincoffDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland Clinic Lerner College of Medicine of Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8175-2121

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionNumber needed to treat (NNT), an outcome measure derived from the estimated risk results of clinical trials, is widely used to demonstrate value to stakeholders by identifying how many patients require treatment to avoid one event of interest. However, NNTs calculated for primary trial endpoints may underestimate a treatment's value by not considering other outcomes. In this secondary analysis of data from the SELECT cardiovascular (CV) outcomes trial, we aimed to determine the NNT for semaglutide for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), in addition to NNTs when other clinically and payer-relevant outcomes are included.

methodsThis study is a secondary analysis of data from the randomized, double-blind SELECT trial (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03574597) of once-weekly subcutaneous administration of semaglutide compared with placebo in 17,604 patients with overweight or obesity and with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) (39.8 months mean follow-up). The outcomes were NNT

resultsThe relative risk reductions observed for the events comprising the NNTs were 20% (NNT

conclusionWhen clinically and payer-relevant outcomes from the SELECT trial are included in calculations of NNT, semaglutide was associated with greater risk reductions and lower estimates of NNT than for the primary endpoint alone. Our findings suggest that including the broader effects of semaglutide beyond the primary trial endpoint recognizes additional value to stakeholders.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesGlucagon-Like PeptidesNumbers Needed To TreatObesityOverweightAgedClinical Trials, Phase III as TopicDouble-Blind MethodFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicSecondary Data AnalysisSemaglutideGlucagon-Like PeptidesSemaglutideCardiovascularClinical relevanceMajor adverse cardiovascular eventsNumber needed to treatSemaglutideValue

Identifiers

PMID40156748
PMCPMC12006245

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.