Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40152744›Full record

ArticleDemography2025

A Research Note on Unconditional Cash Transfers and Fertility in the United States: New Causal Evidence.

Molly A Costanzo, Katherine A Magnuson, Greg J Duncan, Nathan Fox, Lisa A Gennetian, Sarah Halpern-Meekin, Kimberly G Noble, Hirokazu Yoshikawa

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Demography, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT03593356 (Household Income and Child Development in the First Three Years of Life), which is not on this map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT03593356 naactive not recruitingnot on this map

Household Income and Child Development in the First Three Years of Life (Phase 1) Household Income and Child Development in the First Years of Life (Phase 2)

TypeinterventionalSponsorUniversity of California, IrvineRan2018 to 2028Enrolled1,000ConditionsChild Development, Brain Development, Household and Family ProcessesArmsMonthly cash gift payments of $333, Monthly cash gift payments of $20
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Molly A CostanzoInstitute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5082-8725
Katherine A MagnusonInstitute for Research on Poverty and Sandra Rosenbaum School of Social Work, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1140-1200
Greg J DuncanSchool of Education, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9869-6311
Nathan FoxDepartment of Human Development and Quantitative Methodology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.
Lisa A GennetianSanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4639-7547
Sarah Halpern-MeekinSchool of Human Ecology and LaFollette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2142-5097
Kimberly G NobleDepartment of Biobehavioral Sciences and Department of Human Development, Teachers College, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1496-5113
Hirokazu YoshikawaDepartment of Applied Psychology, New York University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5607-8526

Funding

Household Income and Child Development in the First Years of LifeR01HD087384 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA-IRVINE · PI Greg John Duncan, LISA A GENNETIAN · 2017 to 2026
$14.1M
Science CoreP2CHD065563 · NICHD · DUKE UNIVERSITY · PI Giovanna M Merli · 2015 to 2026
$5.7M
NICHD NIH HHS P2C HD065563NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD087384
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

As cash transfer policies have gained traction in recent years, interest in how financial resources could impact fertility has also grown. Increasing an individual's purchasing power with additional economic resources, such as those provided in unconditional cash transfers, might better enable parents to meet their fertility and reproductive goals, whether those goals are to become pregnant and give birth or to avoid or terminate pregnancies. In this research note, we provide new experimental evidence of the causal impact of a monthly unconditional cash transfer on fertility-related outcomes for U.S. families with at least one young child and low incomes. We find trends of increased pregnancy after three years but no corresponding impacts on births, miscarriages, or terminations. Our findings might indicate that modest cash transfers to mothers with low incomes in the United States are unlikely to have substantial impacts on fertility.

Indexed as

Birth RateFertilityAdultFamily CharacteristicsFemaleHumansPovertyPregnancySocioeconomic FactorsUnited StatesYoung AdultCash transfersFertilityPoverty

Identifiers

PMID40152744
PMCPMC12126197

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.