Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40152415›Full record

Trial reportBipolar disorders2025

Factors Predisposing to the Onset of Bipolar Disorder: A 30-Year Longitudinal Study.

Peter Tyrer, Min Yang, Helen Tyrer, Gin Malhi

Abstract readRandomized Controlled Trial
In one paragraph

Trial report in Bipolar disorders, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Peter TyrerDivision of Psychiatry, Imperial College, London, England.ORCID 0000-0002-0358-1459
Min YangSwinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Helen TyrerDivision of Psychiatry, Imperial College, London, England.
Gin MalhiFaculty of Medicine & Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.

Funding

Greater Manchester NHS TrustJessie Spencer TrustMedical Research Council Cooperative Group UK (MENCOG)
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo examine the factors that predict the development of bipolar disorder in a population presenting with anxiety and depressive disorders.

methodIn a 30-year study, the Nottingham Study of Neurotic Disorder, the personality status, life events, service data, and early course of patients recruited to a randomised controlled trial were compared in patients who developed bipolar pathology and those who had no bipolar symptoms.

resultsOver 30 years, 5 (2.5%) of 200 patients assessed at baseline developed unequivocal bipolar disorder, one within the first 10 weeks of the study, and three (1.5%) had bipolar II pathology. Analysis of these data showed that those patients who had some degree of bipolarity had an increase in anxiety and depressive symptoms and general psychopathology, most pronounced in the second year of the study, that was not found with patients who had no bipolar pathology.

conclusionsPatients treated for anxiety and depressive disorders who remain unwell after initial treatment are more at risk of developing bipolar disorder than others.

Indexed as

Bipolar DisorderAdultAnxiety DisordersFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleMiddle AgedPsychiatric Status Rating ScalesRisk Factorsbipolar disorderlong‐term outcomemixed anxiety‐depressionprediction

Identifiers

PMID40152415
PMCPMC12254907

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.