ArticleBMC infectious diseases2025
Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling and mapping of malaria risk among children under five years of age in Ghana.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Geostatistical Modelling and Web-Based Mapping of Malaria Risks Among Children Under Five Years in Nigeria: Evidence From the 2021 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey.Health science reports · 2026Article
- Recent advances in machine learning and Bayesian modeling for tropical disease prediction, diagnosis, and risk analysis: a scoping review.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Guiding malaria elimination interventions: a data-driven approach to resource optimization in Benin, West Africa.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Multi-scenario evaluation of federated learning for privacy-preserving malaria prediction with Ghana DHS data.PLOS digital health · 2026Article
- Identification of malaria hotspots in southwestern Benin through spatial joint modelling of malaria incidence and vector abundance.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Malaria incidence, severity and mortality in children under five in Ghana: evidence from generalised additive models.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Lagged effect of temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence in Colombia (2013-2023): An approach with Bayesian spatiotemporal adjustment.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Environmental and socio-economic determinants of malaria transmission in West Africa: a systematic review.One health outlook · 2025Review
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3 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundMalaria is a significant public health problem, particularly among children aged 6-59 months who bear the greatest burden of the disease. Malaria transmission is high and more pronounced in poor tropical and subtropical areas of the world. Climate change is positively correlated with the geographical distribution of malaria vectors. There is substantial evidence of spatial and temporal differences in under-five malaria risk. Thus, the study aimed to create intelligent maps of smooth relative risk of malaria in children under-5 years in Ghana that highlight high and low malaria burden in space and time to support malaria prevention, control, and elimination efforts.
methodThe study extracted and merged data on malaria among children aged 6-59 months from the 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS), 2016 and 2019 Ghana Malaria Indicator Surveys (GMIS). The outcome variable of interest was the count of children aged 6-59 months with a positive test on the rapid diagnostic test (RDT) result. Bayesian Hierarchical spatiotemporal models were specified to estimate and map spatiotemporal variations in the relative risk of malaria. The existence of local clustering was assessed using the local indicator of spatial association (LISA), and the points were mapped to display significant local clusters, hotpot, and cold spot communities.
resultsThe number of positive malaria cases in children aged 6-59 months decreased marginally from 946.7 (36.4%) in 2014 to 603.6 (22.9) in 2019 DHS survey periods. Smooth relative risk of malaria among children aged 6-59 months has consistently increased in the Northern and Eastern regions between 2014 and 2019. Socioeconomic and climatic factors such as household size [Posterior Mean: -0.198 (95% CrI: 3.52, 80.95)], rural area [Posterior Mean: 1.739 (95% CrI: 0.581, 2.867)], rainfall [Posterior Mean: 0.003 (95% CrI: 0.001, 0.005)], and maximum temperature [Posterior Mean: -1.069 (95% CrI: -2.135, -0.009)] were all shown as statistically significant predictors of malaria risk in children aged 6-59 months. Hot spot DHS clusters (enumeration areas) with a significantly high relative risk of malaria among children aged 6-59 months were repeatedly detected in the Ashanti region between 2014 and 2019.
conclusionThe findings of the study would provide policymakers with practical and insightful information for the equitable distribution of scarce health resources targeted at reducing the burden of malaria and its associated mortality among children under five years.
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