ArticleNature medicine2025
Transmission dynamics of the 2022 mpox epidemic in New York City.
Article in Nature medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Routes of transmission of mpox by virus clade and geographic distribution: A systematic review.Journal of infection and public health · 2025Pooled it
- Heterogeneity in and correlation between host transmissibility and susceptibility can greatly impact epidemic dynamics.Journal of theoretical biology · 2025Pooled it
- An integrated review of monkeypox: from pathogen and epidemiology to diagnostics, control, and challenges.Emerging microbes & infections · 2026Review
- MVA-BN monkeypox vaccine safety in a clinical trial in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.NPJ vaccines · 2026Article
- Viral introductions and return to baseline sexual behaviors maintain low-level mpox incidence in Los Angeles.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Public health surveillance and outbreak preparedness for mpox.Current opinion in HIV and AIDS · 2026Review
- Clinical, epidemiological, and genomic evidence on mpox in mainland China, 2022-2025: a scoping review.Frontiers in microbiology · 2026Review
- Mathematical modelling and time series clustering of Mpox outbreak: A comparative study of the top 10 affected countries and implications for future outbreak management.Global epidemiology · 2025Article
- Relationship dynamics and behavioral adaptations in the control of the 2022 mpox epidemic.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Heterogeneity in and correlation between host transmissibility and susceptibility can greatly impact epidemic dynamics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
18 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The 2022 global mpox epidemic was caused by transmission of MPXV clade IIb, lineage B.1 through sexual contact networks, with New York City (NYC) experiencing the first and largest outbreak in the United States. By performing phylogeographic analysis of MPXV genomes sampled from 757 individuals in NYC between April 2022 and April 2023, and 3,287 MPXV genomes sampled around the world, we identify over 200 introductions of MPXV into NYC with at least 84 leading to onward transmission. These infections primarily occurred among men who have sex with men, transgender women and nonbinary individuals. Through a comparative analysis with HIV in NYC, we find that both MPXV and HIV genomic cluster sizes are best fit by scale-free distributions, and that people in MPXV clusters are more likely to have previously received an HIV diagnosis and be a member of a recently growing HIV transmission cluster. We model MPXV transmission through sexual contact networks and show that highly connected individuals would be disproportionately infected at the start of an epidemic, which would likely result in the exhaustion of the most densely connected parts of the network, and, therefore, explain the rapid expansion and decline of the NYC outbreak. By coupling the genomic epidemiology of MPXV and HIV with epidemic modeling, we demonstrate that the transmission dynamics of MPXV in NYC can be understood by general principles of sexually transmitted pathogens.
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