ArticleEmerging infectious diseases2025
Predictive Model for Estimating Annual Ebolavirus Spillover Potential.
Article in Emerging infectious diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The use of artificial intelligence based modelling techniques in One Health-related infectious disease studies in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review.Frontiers in artificial intelligence · 2026Pooled it
- A generalized multi-population model for Ebola virus transmission incorporating environmental reservoir dynamics.Infectious medicine · 2026Article
- Drivers of Viral Spillover: An Examination of How Pathogens Spread.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Exploring the Potential Contribution of Climate-Informed Research to Future Ebola Preparedness in Central Africa.Viruses · 2026Review
- Integrating explainable AI and One Health: a new frontier in combating infectious diseases.EBioMedicine · 2026Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Forest changes, human population dynamics, and meteorologic conditions have been associated with zoonotic Ebolavirus spillover into humans. High-resolution spatial data for those variables can be used to produce estimates of spillover potential and assess possible annual changes. We developed a model of Ebolavirus spillover during 2001-2021, accounting for variables measured across multiple spatial and temporal scales. We estimated the annual relative odds of Ebolavirus spillover during 2021 and 2022. The highest relative spillover odds estimates occurred in patches that closely followed the spatial distribution of forest loss and fragmentation. Regions throughout equatorial Africa had increased spillover estimates related to changes in forests and human populations. Spillover events in 2022 occurred in locations in the top 0.1% of overall spillover odds estimates or where estimates increased from 2021 to 2022. This model can be used to preemptively target surveillance to identify outbreaks, mitigate disease spread, and educate the public on risk factors for infection.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.