Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40132850›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2025

Machine learning models for prediction of lymph node metastasis in patients with gastric cancer: a Chinese single-centre study with external validation in an Asian American population.

Qian Li, Shangcheng Yan, Weiran Yang, Zhuan Du, Ming Cheng, Renwei Chen, Qiankun Shao, Yuan Tian, Mengchao Sheng, Wei Peng and 1 more

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Qian Li *Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China.
Shangcheng Yan *Department of General Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Weiran Yang *Institute of Exercise Training and Sport Informatics, German Sport University, Cologne, Germany.
Zhuan DuDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China.
Ming ChengDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China.
Renwei ChenDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China.
Qiankun ShaoDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China.
Yuan TianDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China.
Mengchao ShengDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China.
Wei PengDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China.
Yongyou WuDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China wyoyo111@163.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0004-3434-2508

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo develop and validate machine learning (ML)-based models to predict lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with gastric cancer (GC).

designRetrospective cohort study.

settingSecond Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University.

participantsA total of 500 inpatients from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, collected retrospectively between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2023, were used as the training set, while 824 Asian patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database comprised the external validation set.

main outcome measuresPrediction models were developed using multiple ML algorithms, including logistic regression, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbours, naive Bayes, decision tree (DT), gradient boosting DT, random forest and artificial neural network (ANN). The predictive value of these models was validated and evaluated through receiver operating characteristic curves, precision-recall (PR) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis and accuracy metrics.

resultsAmong the ML algorithms, the ANN outperformed others, achieving the highest accuracy (0.722; 95% CI: 0.692 to 0.751), precision (0.732; 95% CI: 0.694 to 0.776), F1 score (0.733; 95% CI: 0.695 to 0.773), specificity (0.728; 95% CI: 0.684 to 0.770) and area under the PR curve (0.781; 95% CI: 0.740 to 0.821) in the external validation results. Moreover, it demonstrated superior calibration and clinical utility. Shapley Additive Explanations analysis identified the depth of invasion, tumour size and Lauren classification as the most influential predictors of LNM in patients with GC. Furthermore, a user-friendly web application was developed to provide individual prediction results.

conclusionsThis study introduces an accurate, reliable and clinically applicable approach for predicting the risk of LNM in patients with GC. The model demonstrates its potential to enhance the personalised management of GC in diverse populations, supported by external validation and an accessible web application for practical use.

Indexed as

Lymphatic MetastasisMachine LearningStomach NeoplasmsAdultAgedAlgorithmsAsianChinaEast Asian PeopleFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRetrospective StudiesROC CurveGastrointestinal tumoursMachine LearningONCOLOGY

Identifiers

PMID40132850
PMCPMC11938237

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