ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2025
Age-Dependent Assortativeness in Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 Oral Transmission in the United States: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis.
Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Projected public health benefits of a hypothetical HSV-1 vaccine in the United States: A mathematical modeling analysis.Science advances · 2026Article
- Sex-specific biological susceptibility and sexual mixing patterns in herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission: a mathematical modeling study.BMC global and public health · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundHerpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) is a highly infectious, globally prevalent lifelong infection. Despite advancements in understanding its epidemiology, the assortativeness in the age-dependent transmission patterns remains unclear. This study aimed to estimate the degree of assortativeness in age group mixing for oral-to-oral HSV-1 transmission within the United States (US) population.
methodsAn age-structured mathematical model was employed to describe HSV-1 transmission dynamics in the US population, incorporating its different modes of transmission. The model was fitted to nationally representative HSV-1 data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) spanning 1976-2016 using a Bayesian inference framework. The degree of assortativeness in age group mixing was calibrated on a scale from 0 (no age group bias in close-proximity interactions) to 1 (exclusive mixing within the same age group).
resultsThe model demonstrated robust fits to US demographics, age-specific HSV-1 prevalence, and temporal trends in both HSV-1 prevalence and ever-symptomatic HSV-1 genital herpes prevalence. The degree of assortativeness was estimated as 0.87 (95% credible interval [CrI], .64-.99) for children, indicating strong age-based assortativity, and as 0.04 (95% CrI, .004-.10) for adults, indicating weak age-based assortativity.
conclusionsMost HSV-1 infections among children are acquired from peers within their own age group, whereas adults acquire HSV-1 infections from a broad range of age groups.
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