Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40131471›Full record

ArticleJournal of neurology2025

Global trends and projections of Parkinson's disease incidence: a 30-year analysis using GBD 2021 data.

Libo Xu, Zhenhao Wang, Qingsong Li

Abstract read
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of neurology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Molecularly Engineered Phenoxazinone-Skeleton Cascade-Activated NIR Probes for Monitoring FeAdvanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2026
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Global, regional, and national burden of Early-onset Parkinson's disease: A comprehensive analysis and forecast, 1990-2021.Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2026
    Article
  10. Temperature fluctuations and genetic influences on Parkinson's disease: a comprehensive analysis of temperature variability and time spent outdoors in the United States (1999-2023).Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2026
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Libo XuThe Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, 150086, China.
Zhenhao WangThe Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, 150086, China.
Qingsong LiThe Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, 150086, China. liqingsongkuaile@163.com.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

objectivesParkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disorder marked by the progressive loss of dopaminergic neurons, leading to motor dysfunction and non-motor symptoms like cognitive decline and depression. With the aging global population, PD incidence is anticipated to rise, especially in regions with rapidly growing elderly populations. This study leverages Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data to analyze the burden of PD by region, sex, and age group, examining trends from 1992 to 2021 and projecting the future burden to 2030.

methodsData from the GBD 2021 database for the years 1992-2021 were analyzed to assess age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and mortality of PD across socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, sex, and age groups. The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model was used to explore temporal trends, while the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model projected future PD burden from 2022 to 2030.

resultsFrom 1992 to 2021, global PD cases increased from 450,000 to 1.34 million, with crude incidence rates rising from 8.19 to 16.92 per 100,000 and ASIR from 11.54 to 15.63 per 100,000, indicating an annual net drift of 1.11% (95% CI 1.06%-1.17%), reflecting a growing burden driven by an aging population. All SDI regions saw a growth in PD burden, with the highest increases in middle- and high-middle-SDI regions, where male incidence was notably higher than female. Incidence rates escalated sharply in individuals aged 60 and older, peaking in those aged 85 and above. Projections suggest that by 2030, global PD cases will reach 1.93 million, with an ASIR of 27 per 100,000. DISCUSSION: The findings highlight a sustained global increase in PD burden, particularly in middle- and high-income regions and among men. In low-SDI areas, PD burden may be underestimated due to limited healthcare access and diagnostic challenges. These results stress the urgent need for health policies focused on elderly populations, especially men, and call for effective prevention and intervention strategies to mitigate the future impact of PD.

Indexed as

Global Burden of DiseaseGlobal HealthParkinson DiseaseAdultAgedAged, 80 and overDatabases, FactualFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedYoung AdultAge-period-cohort modelGlobal burden of diseaseIncidence and future projectionParkinson’s diseaseSocio-demographic index

Identifiers

PMID40131471

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.