ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2025
Using net-zero carbon debt to track climate overshoot responsibility.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Tracking country-level mitigation progress using NGHGI-consistent carbon budgets.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Article
- The human and social impacts of climate overshoot.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Effect of discontinuous fair-share emissions allocations immediately based on equity.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Using net-zero carbon debt to track climate overshoot responsibility.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- A principle-based framework to determine countries' fair warming contributions to the Paris Agreement.Nature communications · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Current emissions trends will likely deplete a 1.5 °C consistent carbon budget around the year 2030, resulting in at least a temporary exceedance, or overshoot. To clarify responsibilities for this budget exceedance, we consider "net-zero carbon debt," a forward-looking measure of the extent to which a party is expected to breach its "fair share" of the remaining budget by the time it achieves net-zero carbon emissions. We apply this measure to all vetted mitigation scenarios assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report and two scenarios that model current policies and pledges, using an illustrative equal per capita allocation of a remaining 1.5 °C carbon budget starting in 1990. The resulting regional carbon debt estimates inform i) the scale and pace of regional carbon drawdown obligations necessary to address budget exceedance and ii) relative regional responsibilities for increased lifetime exposure to extreme heatwaves across age cohorts due to budget exceedance. Our work strengthens intergenerational equity considerations within an international climate equity discourse and informs the implementation of effort-sharing mechanisms that persist beyond the exhaustion of a rapidly dwindling remaining carbon budget.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.