Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40119028›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2025

A novel approach to forecasting reproduction numbers of spatiotemporal stochastic epidemic spread using a PDE-based model and real-time infection data.

Deepak Antony David, Chunyan Liu, Logan Street, Shelley Ehrlich, Manish Kumar, Subramanian Ramakrishnan

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Deepak Antony DavidDepartment of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, USA.
Chunyan LiuDivision of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH, USA.
Logan StreetDepartment of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, USA.
Shelley EhrlichDivision of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH, USA.
Manish KumarDepartment of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, USA.
Subramanian RamakrishnanDepartment of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Dayton, Dayton, OH, USA. sramakrishnan1@udayton.edu.

Funding

National Science Foundation CMMI: 2140405, 2140420, 2140441
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for improved epidemic spread forecasting, a critical precursor for developing optimal control measures for spread mitigation. Well-recognized shortcomings in computing basic and effective reproduction numbers (

Indexed as

Basic Reproduction NumberCOVID-19EpidemicsEpidemiological ModelsForecastingHumansModels, TheoreticalOhioPandemicsSARS-CoV-2Spatio-Temporal AnalysisStochastic Processes

Identifiers

PMID40119028
PMCPMC11928691

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.