ArticleSurgery today2025
Projection of future demand for non-cancerous gastrointestinal surgery in Japan: challenges and workforce planning in an aging society.
Article in Surgery today, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Comparison of Nationwide Volumes for Five Major Gastrointestinal Surgical Procedures in Japan: Implications From Publicly Available NCD and NDB Open Data.Annals of gastroenterological surgery · 2026Article
- No regional survival disparities following curative gastrectomy in patients aged over 80 years with gastric cancer. a multicenter retrospective study.Surgery today · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
purposeJapan's aging population poses challenges for balancing healthcare demands and workforce supply. The aim of this study was to project the future demand for major non-cancerous gastrointestinal surgeries such as cholecystectomy, inguinal hernia repair, and appendectomy up until 2050 and examine the impact of a shrinking working-age population on surgical workforce needs.
methodsWe used data from the National Database of Health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups of Japan Open Data (2018-2022) and population projections to calculate age- and sex-specific procedure rates. These rates were applied to population forecasts for 2030, 2040, and 2050 under high, low, and average demand scenarios. Working-age population (15-65 years) trends were included for comparison.
resultsThe projected demand for appendectomy, most common in people aged 20-39, is expected to decrease by 16.6% by 2050, whereas cholecystectomy and inguinal hernia repair demand, concentrated in people aged 60 and above, are projected to decrease by 5.8% and 7.1%, respectively. The working-age population is anticipated to decline by 25.3%, potentially posing significant challenges to maintaining an adequate surgical workforce.
conclusionsWhile the absolute number of gastrointestinal surgeries is projected to decrease, Japan faces substantial demographic changes that may impact surgical workforce capacity. Strategic workforce planning is essential to address these demographic challenges.
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Registered trials
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