Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40106179›Full record

ArticleInfectious diseases and therapy2025

PCV13-Serotype Breakthrough Pneumococcal Disease in Infants Receiving High-Valency Conjugate Vaccines: Population-Level Modeling in France.

Kevin M Bakker, Rachel J Oidtman, Natalie Banniettis, Kristen Feemster, Priscilla Velentgas, Tufail M Malik, Giulio Meleleo, Jessica Weaver

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Infectious diseases and therapy, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Journal of preventive medicine and hygiene · 2026
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Kevin M BakkerHealth Economic and Decision Sciences, Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7084-9291
Rachel J OidtmanHealth Economic and Decision Sciences, Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA.
Natalie BanniettisClinical Research, Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA.
Kristen FeemsterGlobal Medical Affairs, Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0822-5688
Priscilla VelentgasEpidemiology, Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0007-4764-2595
Tufail M MalikHealth Economic and Decision Sciences, Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0196-0057
Giulio MeleleoWolfram Research, Inc., Champaign, IL, USA.
Jessica WeaverOutcomes Research, Merck & Co., Inc., 126 E. Lincoln Ave, Rahway, NJ, 07065, USA. jessica.weaver@merck.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9861-3328

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionPneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been increasing in valency to protect against a larger number of serotypes; however, the addition of serotypes has come at the cost of reduced immunogenicity, which may lead to breakthrough disease.

methodsThis study used a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of introducing routine vaccination with either PCV15 or PCV20 on breakthrough invasive pneumococcal disease (bIPD) incidence associated with PCV13 serotypes in infants aged 0-12 months in France. The model incorporated historical PCV introductions and calibrated age- and serotype-specific IPD data spanning 2000-2019. Serotype-specific vaccine effectiveness for PCV15 and PCV20 was predicted based on previously published analyses. The incidence of bIPD was evaluated across three serotype classes: PCV7 (serotypes 4, 6B, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, and 23F), PCV13-nonPCV7-nonST3 (serotypes 1, 5, 6A, 7F, and 19A), and ST3 (serotype 3). Results were compared to IPD incidence in 2019.

resultsTwenty years following introduction into the childhood immunization program, the routine use of PCV15 in a 2 + 1 regimen led to fewer PCV13-nonPCV7-nonST3-associated bIPD cases in infants than the use of PCV20 in either a 2 + 1 or 3 + 1 regimen. PCV15 reduced bIPD incidence in all three serotype classes (- 28% to - 89%) in infants, with the largest impact on ST3. PCV20 in both regimens resulted in more bIPD cases from PCV7 serotypes (+ 65% to + 350%), while PCV13-nonPCV7-nonST3 and ST3 bIPD cases increased in a 2 + 1 regimen (+ 28% and + 6%, respectively) but decreased in a 3 + 1 regimen (- 23% and - 30%, respectively), in infants.

conclusionsImplementation of PCV15 in a 2 + 1 regimen could reduce bIPD incidence due to all PCV13 serotypes in infants, whereas PCV20 in a 2 + 1 regimen may lead to substantial increases in bIPD cases from PCV13 serotypes in infants. PCV20 in a 3 + 1 regimen could potentially lead to a resurgence of bIPD from PCV7 serotypes in infants.

Indexed as

Breakthrough diseaseDynamic transmission modelInfantPneumococcal infectionsPneumococcal vaccines

Identifiers

PMID40106179
PMCPMC11993511

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.