ArticleJournal of clinical nursing2026
The Development of a Model to Predict Cognitive Decline Within 12 Months in Home Care Clients.
Article in Journal of clinical nursing, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- The Development of a Model to Predict Cognitive Decline Within 12 Months in Home Care Clients.Journal of clinical nursing · 2026Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
aimTo develop and validate a model to predict cognitive decline within 12 months for home care clients without a diagnosis of dementia.
designWe included all adults aged ≥ 18 years who had at least two interRAI Home Care assessments within 12 months, no diagnosis of dementia and a baseline Cognitive Performance Scale score ≤ 1. The sample was randomly split into a derivation cohort (75%) and a validation cohort (25%). Significant cognitive decline was defined as an increase (deterioration) in Cognitive Performance Scale scores from '0' or '1' at baseline to a score of ≥ 2 at the follow-up assessment.
methodsUsing the derivation cohort, a multivariable logistic regression model was used to predict cognitive decline within 12 months. Covariates included demographics, disease diagnoses, sensory and communication impairments, health conditions, physical and social functioning, service utilisation, informal caregiver status and eight interRAI-derived health index scales. The predicted probability of cognitive decline was calculated for each person in the validation cohort. The c-statistic was used to assess the model's discriminative ability. This study followed the Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) reporting guidelines.
resultsA total of 6796 individuals (median age: 82; female: 60.4%) were split into a derivation cohort (n = 5098) and a validation cohort (n = 1698). Logistic regression models using the derivation cohort resulted in a c-statistic of 0.70 (95% CI 0.70, 0.73). The final regression model (including 21 main effects and 8 significant interaction terms) was applied to the validation cohort, resulting in a c-statistic of 0.69 (95% CI 0.66, 0.72).
conclusioninterRAI data can be used to develop a model for identifying individuals at risk of cognitive decline. Identifying this group enables proactive clinical interventions and care planning, potentially improving their outcomes. While these results are promising, the model's moderate discriminative ability highlights opportunities for improvement.
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