ArticleBMC infectious diseases2025
Estimating HIV incidence in Türkiye: results from two mathematical models.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Knowledge and HIV-Related Stigmatizing Attitudes Among Healthcare Workers: A Cross-Sectional Study.Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Missed Opportunities for HIV Testing in Hospitalised Adults in Türkiye: Indicator Conditions and Testing Coverage in a National Multicentre Point-Prevalence Survey (HIV-ICs-TR).Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Rectal douching is associated with gut dysbiosis and metabolic disruption in HIV-uninfected men who have sex with men.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Pharmacy faculty students' knowledge and attitudes towards HIV/AIDS: a multicentre cross-sectional study in Türkiye.BMC medical education · 2026Article
- The Burden of Intersecting Internalized Homophobia and Internalized HIV Stigma Can Exacerbate Depression Symptoms Among Gay Men Living with HIV in Türkiye.Archives of sexual behavior · 2026Article
- Pharmacoeconomic perspectives on HIV: integrating data for long-term treatment and prevention.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Review
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2 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThe number of HIV patients has been decreasing globally due to world-wide efforts to end this epidemic; however, HIV incidence has been significantly increasing in Türkiye in the last five years. This study aimed to develop mathematical models to analyze and forecast HIV incidence and prevalence in Türkiye up to 2030.
methodsFirst, we utilized a Bernoulli model and estimated the annual HIV incidence for risk groups such as heterosexuals (HET), men who have sex with men (MSM), persons who inject drugs (PWID) and female sex workers (FSW). We then developed a dynamic compartmental model of HIV transmission and progression to estimate the incidence of HIV from 2024 to 2030 and further determine the continuum of care levels, such as the proportion of people living with diagnosed HIV and the proportion of people receiving antiretroviral treatment. We also conducted sensitivity analyses for both models on key parameters to explore the robustness of our results.
resultsThe Bernoulli model indicates that the majority of HIV incidence is driven by two primary risk groups: men who have sex with men (MSM) (41%) and high-risk heterosexuals (HET) (38%). While the risk of HIV transmission is high for people who inject drugs (PWID) (0.07%) and female sex workers (FSW) (0.85%), their contribution to total incidence is lower due to their smaller population sizes. Results from the dynamic compartmental model predict that both the incidence of HIV and the number of HIV-related deaths will continue to rise over the next decade. HIV incidence is projected to reach 27,036 cases in 2025 and increase 2.9-times to 105,202 cases by 2030. According to our models, a significant portion of the HIV-positive population remains undiagnosed (49%), and individuals at high risk of HIV transmission (41% of estimated HIV incidence) are the primary drivers of the epidemic.
conclusionsThe number of HIV cases could significantly increase with existing prevention efforts, and HIV could become a major public health threat in the near future in Türkiye.
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