ArticleNature geoscience2025
Past hydroclimate extremes in Europe driven by Atlantic jet stream and recurrent weather patterns.
Article in Nature geoscience, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Recent equatorward shift of the summer North Atlantic jet dominated by internal climate variability.Science advances · 2026Article
- Article
- Scandinavian pattern and temperature changes shape European summer droughts over the past millennium.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Comparing 600 years of extremely hot Central European summers to future projections.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- A strengthening yet less extreme Atlantic-European jet during winter.Nature geoscience · 2026Article
- Westerly jet waviness modulates mid-latitude hydroclimate variability.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Article
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11 authors.
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Abstract
The jet stream over the Atlantic-European sector is relevant for weather and climate in Europe. It generates temperature extremes and steers moisture and flood-propelling weather systems to Europe or facilitates the development of atmospheric blocks, which can lead to drought. Ongoing climate change may alter the jet characteristics, affecting weather extremes. However, little is known about the past interannual-to-decadal variability of the jet stream. Here we analyse the strength, tilt and latitude of the Atlantic-European jet from 1421 to 2023 in an ensemble of monthly and daily reconstructions of atmospheric fields. We compare the variability of these jet indices with blocking frequency and cyclonic activity data and with drought and flood reconstructions in Europe. Summer drought is enhanced in Central Europe in periods with a poleward-shifted jet. An equatorward-shifted jet associated with decreased blocking leads to frequent floods in Western Europe and the Alps, particularly in winter. Recurrent weather patterns causing floods often characterize an entire season, such that an association between peak discharge and jet indices is seen on seasonal or even annual scales. Jet strength and tilt are significantly influenced by volcanic eruptions. Our 600-year perspective shows that recent changes in the jet indices are within the past variability and cannot be drivers of increasing flood and drought frequency.
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