Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40091046›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Neural signatures of temporal anticipation in human cortex represent event probability density.

Matthias Grabenhorst, David Poeppel, Georgios Michalareas

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. The anticipation of imminent events is time-scale invariant.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  3. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Matthias GrabenhorstDepartment of Cognitive Neuropsychology, Max-Planck-Institute for Empirical Aesthetics, Frankfurt, Germany. m.g@ae.mpg.de.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7408-7458
David PoeppelNew York University, 6 Washington Place, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0184-163X
Georgios MichalareasDepartment of Cognitive Neuropsychology, Max-Planck-Institute for Empirical Aesthetics, Frankfurt, Germany.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Temporal prediction is a fundamental function of neural systems. Recent results show that humans anticipate future events by calculating probability density functions, rather than hazard rates. However, direct neural evidence for this hypothesized mechanism is lacking. We recorded neural activity using magnetoencephalography as participants anticipated auditory and visual events distributed in time. We show that temporal anticipation, measured as reaction times, approximates the event probability density function, but not hazard rate. Temporal anticipation manifests as spatiotemporally patterned activity in three anatomically and functionally distinct parieto-temporal and sensorimotor cortical areas. Each of these areas revealed a marked neural signature of anticipation: Prior to sensory cues, activity in a specific frequency range of neural oscillations, spanning alpha and beta ranges, encodes the event probability density function. These neural signals predicted reaction times to imminent sensory cues. These results demonstrate that supra-modal representations of probability density across cortex underlie the anticipation of future events.

Indexed as

Anticipation, PsychologicalCerebral CortexSensorimotor CortexAcoustic StimulationAdultBrain MappingCuesFemaleHumansMagnetoencephalographyMalePhotic StimulationProbabilityReaction TimeTemporal LobeYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID40091046
PMCPMC11911442

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.