Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40090366›Full record

ArticleEuropean heart journal2025

High temperature and cardiovascular disease in Australia under different climatic, demographic, and adaptive scenarios.

Jingwen Liu, Blesson M Varghese, Alana Hansen, Keith Dear, Timothy Driscoll, Ying Zhang, Geoffrey Morgan, Vanessa Prescott, Vergil Dolar, Michelle Gourley and 2 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in European heart journal, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Jingwen LiuSchool of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Level 4, 50 Rundle Mall Plaza, Rundle Mall, Adelaide, South Australia 5000, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-2754-0712
Blesson M VargheseSchool of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Level 4, 50 Rundle Mall Plaza, Rundle Mall, Adelaide, South Australia 5000, Australia.
Alana HansenSchool of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Level 4, 50 Rundle Mall Plaza, Rundle Mall, Adelaide, South Australia 5000, Australia.
Keith DearSchool of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Level 4, 50 Rundle Mall Plaza, Rundle Mall, Adelaide, South Australia 5000, Australia.
Timothy DriscollSydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Ying ZhangSydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Geoffrey MorganSydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Vanessa PrescottPrevention and Environmental Health Unit, Australia Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, Australia.
Vergil DolarBurden of Disease and Mortality Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, Australia.
Michelle GourleyBurden of Disease and Mortality Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, Australia.
Anthony CaponMonash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
Peng BiSchool of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Level 4, 50 Rundle Mall Plaza, Rundle Mall, Adelaide, South Australia 5000, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-3238-3427

Funding

Australian Research Council Discovery DP200102571
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

aimsCardiovascular disease (CVD), the leading cause of death globally and in Australia, is sensitive to heat exposure. This study assesses the burden of CVD attributable to high temperatures across Australia and projects future burden in the context of climate change.

methodsDisability-adjusted life years for CVD, including years of life lost and years lived with disability, were sourced from the Australian Burden of Disease database. A meta-regression model was constructed using location-specific predictors and relative risks from prior literature to estimate relative risks of CVD mortality and morbidity due to high temperatures in the Australian context. The baseline CVD burden attributable to high temperatures in Australia for 2003-18 was calculated, and future burdens under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)] for the 2030s and 2050s were projected, considering demographic changes and human adaptation.

resultsDuring the baseline period, high temperatures accounted for 7.3% (95% confidence interval: 7.0%-7.6%) of the CVD burden in Australia, equivalent to 223.8 Disability-adjusted life years (95% confidence interval: 221.0-226.6) per 100 000 population. Future projections suggest a steady increase in the CVD burden across all scenarios examined. By the 2050s, under the RCP8.5 scenario that considers population growth and no adaptation, the total attributable burden of CVD is projected to more than double compared with the baseline, with the Northern Territory facing the most significant increase. These impacts could be mitigated with effective human adaptation to the warming climate.

conclusionsHigher temperatures are expected to exacerbate the burden of CVD. This study highlights the need for urgent adaptation and mitigation efforts to minimize the negative health impacts of a warming climate on CVD.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesClimate ChangeHot TemperatureAdultAgedAustraliaDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedBurden of diseasesCardiovascular diseasesClimate changeHigh temperature

Identifiers

PMID40090366
PMCPMC12075934

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.