ArticleInternational journal of psychiatry in clinical practice2025
Cognitive reactivity compared to other risk factors in the prediction of depressive episodes over two and nine years: a longitudinal cohort study.
Article in International journal of psychiatry in clinical practice, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectiveCognitive Reactivity (CR) is the (re-)activation of negative cognitions by dysphoric mood. We examined whether CR predicts depressive episodes across 2 and 9 years, beyond subclinical depressive symptoms, neuroticism, and previous depressive episodes.
methodsParticipants (
resultsCR was a statistically-significant predictor of two-year depressive episodes, with an odds ratio of 1.04, 95% CI (1.02-1.06), and over nine years, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.01, 95% CI (1.01-1.02). The influence of CR and subclinical depressive symptoms decreased as the number of episodes increased, especially in ≥ 3 past episodes. Calculated weight-points correctly predicted 33.5% of participants who developed 2-year depression, compared to a 17.8% base rate (sensitivity = .81, specificity = .66).
conclusionsCR is a moderately strong predictor of depressive episodes across 2 and 9 years. In participants with ≥ 3 prior episodes, depression history is such a strong predictor that a ceiling effect occurs, removing any added value of other predictors.
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