Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40089758›Full record

ArticleBMC health services research2025

Cost-effectiveness of novel diagnostic tools for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in the United States.

Christopher J Cadham, Joshua Reicher, Michael Muelly, David W Hutton

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC health services research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Christopher J CadhamDepartment of Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, 1420 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-2013, USA. ccadham@umich.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9531-2733
Joshua ReicherImvaria, Inc, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Michael MuellyImvaria, Inc, Berkeley, CA, USA.
David W HuttonDepartment of Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, 1420 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-2013, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesNovel non-invasive machine learning algorithms may improve accuracy and reduce the need for biopsy when diagnosing idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of diagnostic strategies for IPF.

methodsWe developed a decision analytic model to evaluate diagnostic strategies for IPF in the United States. To assess the full spectrum of costs and benefits, we compared four interventions: a machine learning diagnostic algorithm, a genomic classifier, a biopsy-all strategy, and a treat-all strategy. The analysis was conducted from the health sector perspective with a lifetime horizon. The primary outcome measures were costs, Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs) gained, and Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) based on the average of 10,000 probabilistic runs of the model.

resultsCompared to a biopsy-all strategy the machine learning algorithm and genomic classifer reduced diagnostic-related costs by $14,876 and $3,884, respectively. Use of the machine learning algorithm consistently reduced diagnostic costs. When including downstream treatment costs and benefits of anti-fibrotic treatment, the machine learning algorithm had an ICER of $331,069 per QALY gained compared to the biopsy-all strategy. The genomic classifier had a higher ICER of $390,043 per QALY gained, while the treat-all strategy had the highest ICER of $3,245,403 per QALY gained. Results were sensitive to changes in various input parameters including IPF treatment costs, sensitivity and specificity of novel screening tools, and the rate of additional diagnostics following inconclusive results. High treatment costs were found to drive overall cost regardless of the diagnostic method. As treatment costs lowered, the supplemental diagnostic tools became increasingly cost-effective.

conclusionsNovel tools for diagnosing IPF reduced diagnostic costs, while overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were high due to treatment costs. New IPF diagnosis approaches may become more favourable with lower-cost treatments for IPF.

Indexed as

Idiopathic Pulmonary FibrosisMachine LearningAlgorithmsBiopsyCost-Benefit AnalysisDecision Support TechniquesHumansQuality-Adjusted Life YearsUnited StatesCost-effectiveness analysisIdiopathic pulmonary fibrosisMachine learning/classification

Identifiers

PMID40089758
PMCPMC11909868

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.