Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40084406›Full record

ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2025

Annual Variant-Targeted Vaccination to Prevent Severe COVID-19 in Cohorts With Vaccine-Derived and Hybrid Immunity.

J Daniel Kelly, Katherine J Hoggatt, Nathan C Lo, Samuel Leonard, W John Boscardin, Hye Sun Kim, Emily N Lum, Charles C Austin, Amy L Byers, Phyllis C Tien and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

J Daniel KellyCenter for Data to Discovery and Delivery Innovation (3DI), San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System, San Francisco, California, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7616-0321
Katherine J HoggattCenter for Data to Discovery and Delivery Innovation (3DI), San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System, San Francisco, California, USA.
Nathan C LoDivision of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.
Samuel LeonardCenter for Data to Discovery and Delivery Innovation (3DI), San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System, San Francisco, California, USA.
W John BoscardinDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
Hye Sun KimCenter for Data to Discovery and Delivery Innovation (3DI), San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System, San Francisco, California, USA.ORCID 0009-0002-2574-0358
Emily N LumCenter for Data to Discovery and Delivery Innovation (3DI), San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System, San Francisco, California, USA.
Charles C AustinCenter for Data to Discovery and Delivery Innovation (3DI), San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System, San Francisco, California, USA.
Amy L ByersCenter for Data to Discovery and Delivery Innovation (3DI), San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System, San Francisco, California, USA.
Phyllis C TienCenter for Data to Discovery and Delivery Innovation (3DI), San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System, San Francisco, California, USA.
Peter C AustinCardiovascular Research Program, Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Dawn M BravataDepartment of Veterans Affairs Health Services and Development (HSR&D), Center for Health Information and Communication (CHIC), Richard L. Roudebush Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA.
Salomeh KeyhaniCenter for Data to Discovery and Delivery Innovation (3DI), San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System, San Francisco, California, USA.

Funding

Real-time predictive modeling for public health departments to control infectious diseasesDP2AI170485 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI Nathan Lo · 2022 to 2026
$2.3M
Understanding the epidemiology and natural history of unrecognized Ebola virus infectionK23AI146268 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI KELLY, JOHN DANIEL · 2019 to 2022
$748k
CSRD VA I01 CX002417Department of Veterans Affairs Clinical Science Research and Development CX002417National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) AI146268NIAID NIH HHS DP2 AI170485NIAID NIH HHS K23 AI146268NIAID NIH HHS L30 AI171975
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCurrent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine recommendations in the United States (US) provide guidance for adults to receive at least annual variant-targeted vaccination. We sought to estimate the strength and durability of protection from annual variant-targeted vaccination against severe COVID-19 illness in individuals with vaccine-derived and hybrid immunity.

methodsWe emulated a target trial using an electronic health record-based, propensity score-matched (1:1) cohort of US Veterans. Booster-vaccinated adults were eligible for a variant-targeted messenger RNA (mRNA) booster starting 1 September 2022. Matched sets of those who did and did not receive the variant-targeted booster dose were identified on a weekly basis, and the cohort was followed until 31 August 2023. Outcomes were hospitalization due to COVID-19 pneumonia and in-hospital severe illness. We fit Cox models, overall and stratified by last documented severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection (pre-Omicron, Omicron), to estimate relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE).

resultsThe propensity score-matched cohort consisted of 1 576 626 COVID-19 booster-vaccinated adults. Estimates of rVE from variant-targeted mRNA booster against hospitalization due to COVID-19 pneumonia were significant and similar in the cohort with vaccine-derived immunity (rVE, 29% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 25%-34%]) and cohort with hybrid immunity (rVE, 38% [95% CI, 27%-47%]). These protective gains were significant from 0 to 6 months but not 6 to 12 months after vaccination and during pre-XBB and XBB variant eras. Findings were similar for in-hospital severe illness.

conclusionsIn cohorts with vaccine-derived and hybrid immunity, modest but significant gains in protection against hospitalization and severe COVID-19 illness were conferred by the annual variant-targeted booster dose but not sustained beyond 6 months.

Indexed as

COVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesSARS-CoV-2AdultAgedCohort StudiesFemaleHospitalizationHumansImmunization, SecondaryMaleMiddle AgedUnited StatesVaccinationVaccine EfficacyCOVID-19 Vaccinesannual variant-targeted COVID-19 vaccinationbooster-vaccinated adultsCOVID-19 pneumoniahybrid immunitysevere COVID-19 illness

Identifiers

PMID40084406
PMCPMC12448581

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.