ArticleJournal of public health in Africa2025
Analysing dengue fever spread in Kenya using the Zero-Inflated Poisson model.
Article in Journal of public health in Africa, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Climate Variability Drives Dengue Transmission in Bangladesh.Infectious disease reports · 2026Article
- Association of Climatic Factors with Frequency of Dengue.Infectious disease reports · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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Abstract
Background: Dengue fever (DF), transmitted by Aim: This study analysed the impact of climatic factors on DF incidence in Kenya using a Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model. Setting: The study focused on DF cases in Kenya from 2019 to 2021. Methods: A ZIP model was applied to monthly dengue case data and associated climatic variables, such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity. The model addresses over-dispersion and excess zeros in the data, providing a more accurate depiction of DF dynamics. Results: The ZIP model revealed significant associations between climatic variables and DF incidence. Humidity (β = 0.0578, standard error [s.e.] = 0.0024, Conclusion: The results suggest that higher humidity and temperature favor dengue transmission, while heavy rainfall may disrupt mosquito breeding, reducing cases. These findings provide a basis for targeted public health interventions. Contribution: This study enhances understanding of DF-climate interactions in Kenya, supporting the application of ZIP modelling for improved disease surveillance and control strategies.
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