Using mathematical modelling to highlight challenges in understanding trap counts obtained by a baited trap.

Baited traps are routinely used in many ecological and agricultural applications, in particular when information about pest insects is required. However, interpretation of trap counts is challenging, as consistent methods or algorithms relating trap counts to the population abundance in the area around the trap are largely missing. Thus, interpretation of trap counts is usually relative rather than absolute, i.e., a larger average trap count is regarded as an indication of a larger population. In this paper, we challenge this assumption. We show that the key missing point is the animal movement behaviour, which is known to be modified in the presence of attractant (bait), in particular being dependent on the attractant strength. Using an individual-based simulation model of animal movement, we show that an increase in trap counts can happen simply because of changes in the animal movement behaviour even when the population size is constant or even decreasing. Our simulation results are in good qualitative agreement with some available field data. We conclude that, unless reliable biological information about the dependence of animal movement pattern on the type and strength of attractant is available, an increase in trap counts can send a grossly misleading message, resulting in wrong conclusions about the pest population dynamics and hence inadequate conservation or pest management decisions.