Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40078801›Full record

ArticleCambridge prisms. Extinction2024

Mechanistic phylodynamic models do not provide conclusive evidence that non-avian dinosaurs were in decline before their final extinction.

Bethany J Allen, Maria V Volkova Oliveira, Tanja Stadler, Timothy G Vaughan, Rachel C M Warnock

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cambridge prisms. Extinction, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Cambridge prisms. Extinction · 2026
    Article
  2. Fossils improve extinction-rate estimates under state-dependent diversification models.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025
    Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Bethany J AllenDepartment of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Basel, Switzerland.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0282-6407
Maria V Volkova OliveiraIndependent.
Tanja StadlerDepartment of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Basel, Switzerland.
Timothy G VaughanDepartment of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Basel, Switzerland.
Rachel C M WarnockGeozentrum Nordbayern, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität, Erlangen, Germany.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Phylodynamic models can be used to estimate diversification trajectories from time-calibrated phylogenies. Here we apply two such models to phylogenies of non-avian dinosaurs, a clade whose evolutionary history has been widely debated. Although some authors have suggested that the clade experienced a decline in diversity, potentially starting millions of years before the end-Cretaceous mass extinction, others have suggested that the group remained highly diverse right up until the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary. Our results show that model assumptions, likely with respect to incomplete sampling, have a large impact on whether dinosaurs appear to have experienced a long-term decline or not. The results are also highly sensitive to the topology and branch lengths of the phylogeny used. Developing comprehensive models of sampling bias, and building larger and more accurate phylogenies, are likely to be necessary steps for us to determine whether dinosaur diversity was or was not in decline before the end-Cretaceous mass extinction.

Indexed as

Cenozoicdiversificationfossilsphylogenies

Identifiers

PMID40078801
PMCPMC11895757

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.