Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40078377›Full record

ReviewAlzheimer's & dementia (Amsterdam, Netherlands)

The prognosis of mild cognitive impairment: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Simone Salemme, Flavia Lucia Lombardo, Eleonora Lacorte, Francesco Sciancalepore, Giulia Remoli, Ilaria Bacigalupo, Paola Piscopo, Giovanna Zamboni, Paolo Maria Rossini, Stefano Francesco Cappa and 5 more

Erratum issuedAbstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Alzheimer's & dementia (Amsterdam, Netherlands). The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 47 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
47citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

47 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  18. [Progress on prognostic assessment methods for mild cognitive impairment].Zhejiang da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Zhejiang University. Medical sciences · 2026
    Review
  19. Diagnosis and management of subjects with mild cognitive impairment in clinical practice: an Italian delphi consensus study.Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2026
    Article
  20. Mild cognitive impairment-to-Alzheimer's dementia progression risk: the contribution of the Interceptor project.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2026
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Simone SalemmeDepartment of Biomedical Metabolic and Neural Sciences University of Modena and Reggio Emilia Modena Italy.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9260-9993
Flavia Lucia LombardoNational Centre for Disease Prevention and Health Promotion Italian National Institute of Health Rome Italy.
Eleonora LacorteNational Centre for Disease Prevention and Health Promotion Italian National Institute of Health Rome Italy.
Francesco SciancaleporeNational Centre for Disease Prevention and Health Promotion Italian National Institute of Health Rome Italy.
Giulia RemoliSchool of Medicine and Surgery University of Milan-Bicocca Milan Italy.
Ilaria BacigalupoNational Centre for Disease Prevention and Health Promotion Italian National Institute of Health Rome Italy.
Paola PiscopoDepartment of Neuroscience Italian National Institute of Health Rome Italy.
Giovanna ZamboniDepartment of Biomedical Metabolic and Neural Sciences University of Modena and Reggio Emilia Modena Italy.
Paolo Maria RossiniDepartment of Neuroscience & Neurorehabilitation IRCCS San Raffaele Rome Italy.
Stefano Francesco CappaUniversity School for Advanced Studies IUSS Pavia Pavia Italy.
Daniela PeraniNuclear Medicine Unit and Division of Neuroscience IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute Vita-Salute San Raffaele University Milan Italy.
Patrizia SpadinAssociazione Italiana Malattia di Alzheimer" Milan Italy.
Fabrizio TagliaviniFondazione IRCCS Istituto Neurologico "Carlo Besta" Milan Italy.
Nicola VanacoreNational Centre for Disease Prevention and Health Promotion Italian National Institute of Health Rome Italy.
Antonio AncidoniNational Centre for Disease Prevention and Health Promotion Italian National Institute of Health Rome Italy.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionKnowledge gaps remain about the prognosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Conversion rates to dementia vary widely, and reversion to normal cognition has gained attention. This review updates evidence on MCI conversion risk and probability of stability and reversion.

methodsWe searched databases for studies on MCI prognosis with ≥3 years of follow-up, established criteria for MCI and dementia, and performed a meta-analysis using a random-effects model to assess conversion risk, reversion, and stability probability. Meta-regressions identified sources of heterogeneity and guided subgroup analysis.

resultsFrom 89 studies (mean follow-up: 5.2 years), conversion risk was 41.5% (38.3%-44.7%) in clinical and 27.0% (22.0%-32.0%) in population-based studies, with Alzheimer's dementia as the most common outcome. Stability rates were 49.3% (clinical) and 49.8% (population). Reversion was 8.7% (clinical) and 28.2% (population). DISCUSSION: Our findings highlight higher conversion in clinical settings and 30% reversion in population studies, calling for sustainable care pathway development. Highlights: Prognosis for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) varies by setting; dementia risk is higher and the probability of reversion is lower in clinical-based studies.In both clinical and population settings, cognitive stability is ≈50%.A reorganization of health services could ensure sustainable care for individuals with MCI.Significant heterogeneity in MCI studies impacts data interpretation; follow-up length is crucial.Long-term prognosis studies on MCI in low- and middle-income countries are urgently needed.

Indexed as

Alzheimer's diseasebrain healthcognitive declineconversiondecentralizationdementiafunctional abilityMCImeta‐analysisprimary health carequality of carereversionsustainability

Identifiers

PMID40078377
PMCPMC11898010

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.