Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40074909›Full record

ArticleNature2025

Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023-2024 unlikely but not unexpected.

Jens Terhaar, Friedrich A Burger, Linus Vogt, Thomas L Frölicher, Thomas F Stocker

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. 2024 global temperature record is consistent with model-predicted warming.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Geostatistical Analysis of the Variability inAnimals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2026
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Jens TerhaarClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. jens.terhaar@unibe.ch.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9377-415X
Friedrich A BurgerClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7781-8498
Linus VogtLOCEAN/IPSL, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, IRD, MNHN, Paris, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5967-4662
Thomas L FrölicherClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2348-7854
Thomas F StockerClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Global ocean surface temperatures were at record levels for more than a year from April 2023 onwards, exceeding the previous record in 2015-2016 by 0.25 °C on average between April 2023 and March 2024

Identifiers

PMID40074909
PMCPMC11946890

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.