ArticlePsychological medicine2025
Characterising symptomatic substates in individuals on the psychosis continuum: a hidden Markov modelling approach.
Article in Psychological medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundTo improve early intervention and personalise treatment for individuals early on the psychosis continuum, a greater understanding of symptom dynamics is required. We address this by identifying and evaluating the movement between empirically derived attenuated psychotic symptomatic substates-clusters of symptoms that occur within individuals over time.
methodsData came from a 90-day daily diary study evaluating attenuated psychotic and affective symptoms. The sample included 96 individuals aged 18-35 on the psychosis continuum, divided into four subgroups of increasing severity based on their psychometric risk of psychosis, with the fourth meeting ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria. A multilevel hidden Markov modelling (HMM) approach was used to characterise and determine the probability of switching between symptomatic substates. Individual substate trajectories and time spent in each substate were subsequently assessed.
resultsFour substates of increasing psychopathological severity were identified: (1) low-grade affective symptoms with negligible psychotic symptoms; (2) low levels of nonbizarre ideas with moderate affective symptoms; (3) low levels of nonbizarre ideas and unusual thought content, with moderate affective symptoms; and (4) moderate levels of nonbizarre ideas, unusual thought content, and affective symptoms. Perceptual disturbances predominantly occurred within the third and fourth substates. UHR individuals had a reduced probability of switching out of the two most severe substates.
conclusionsFindings suggest that individuals reporting unusual thought content, rather than nonbizarre ideas in isolation, may exhibit symptom dynamics with greater psychopathological severity. Individuals at a higher risk of psychosis exhibited persistently severe symptom dynamics, indicating a potential reduction in psychological flexibility.
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