ArticleFrontiers in public health2025
Significance of the ARIMA epidemiological modeling to predict the rate of HIV and AIDS in the Kumba Health District of Cameroon.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Predicting the spatiotemporal evolution of HIV/AIDS in Africa: A retrospective analysis of epidemiological trends.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Comparison of growth, time series, and hybrid models for HIV infectious disease incidence in adults in Saudi Arabia.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- A comparative evaluation of time-series models for forecasting inpatient deaths and discharges against medical advice.Scientific reports · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
14 authors.
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Abstract
Background: AIDS is a severe medical condition caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that primarily attacks the immune system, specifically CD4+ T lymphocytes (a type of white blood cell crucial for immune response), monocyte macrophages, and dendritic cells. This disease has significant health and socio-economic implications and is one of the primary causes of illness and death globally (UNAIDS, 2022). It presents significant challenges for public health and population well-being, both in developed and developing countries. By conducting a time series analysis, this research seeks to identify any significant changes in HIV rates over the next 4 years in the Kumba District Hospital and provide valuable insights to inform evidence-based decision-making and strategies for preventing and controlling HIV within the Kumba Health District. Materials and methods: A hospital-based retrospective study on HIV/AIDS recorded cases was conducted at the Kumba District Hospital. Using data extraction form, hospital records from 2012 to 2022 were reviewed and data extracted and used to make predictions on the number of future incidence cases. Time series analysis using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was done using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) Version 26. Results: According to the ARIMA parameter (p,d,q), the results for the Partial Autocorrelation Factor (p) was 1, differencing (d) was 0 and Autocorrelation Factor (q) was 0. Putting these values together, we had the ARIMA model (1,0,0) which predicted an overall increase in HIV incidence cases at the Kumba District Hospital for the upcoming Years (2023-2026). Interpretation: The ARIMA model was found to be independent of errors and a perfect fit, with a high R-squared value of 0.764 and a
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