Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40064852›Full record

ReviewNature communications2025

How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather.

Timo Kelder, Dorothy Heinrich, Lisette Klok, Vikki Thompson, Henrique M D Goulart, Ed Hawkins, Louise J Slater, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Robert L Wilby, Erin Coughlan de Perez and 9 more

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Operationalising storage-discharge balance to enhance pluvial flood resilience: modelling and planning strategies in flat and sloping urban areas.Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Why people matter in 21st century hydrology: lessons learnt from flood forecasting and warning.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Timo KelderClimate Adaptation Services Foundation (CAS), Bussum, The Netherlands. timo@climateadaptationservices.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9802-9837
Dorothy HeinrichRed Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8521-1522
Lisette KlokClimate Adaptation Services Foundation (CAS), Bussum, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0008-1827-4890
Vikki ThompsonRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1650-7354
Henrique M D GoulartInstitute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9670-4250
Ed HawkinsDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677
Louise J SlaterSchool of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9416-488X
Laura Suarez-GutierrezInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Robert L WilbyGeography and Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4662-9344
Erin Coughlan de PerezRed Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7645-5720
Elisabeth M StephensRed Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563
Stephen BurtDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
Bart van den HurkDeltares, Delft, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3726-7086
Hylke de VriesRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6124-1102
Karin van der WielRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9365-5759
E Lisa F SchipperDepartment of Geography, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6228-9178
Antonio Carmona BaézUniversity of St. Martin (USM), Philipsburg, Sint Maarten.
Ellen van BuerenFaculty of Architecture and the Built Environment, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4375-1192
Erich M FischerInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1931-6737

Funding

Futureproofing Health: Developing a Center for Resilient Health in DisastersP20ES036118 · NIEHS · TUFTS UNIVERSITY BOSTON · PI COUGHLAN DE PEREZ, ERIN · 2023 to 2023
$3.5M
NIEHS NIH HHS P20 ES036118
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather.

Identifiers

PMID40064852
PMCPMC11894206

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.