ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Western Pacific2025
Cost-effectiveness analysis of switching from a bivalent to a nonavalent HPV vaccination programme in China: a modelling study.
Article in The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Closing the gap in Singapore: Gynaecologic Cancer Awareness Month.Singapore medical journal · 2026Article
- HPV vaccination policies and implementation for adolescents in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Review
- Prevalence and genotype distribution of high-risk human papillomavirus infections among women in selected communities in the Philippines: Results of the defeat HPV study.Journal of virus eradication · 2026Article
- Is the HPV vaccine lottery system equitable under constrained vaccine supply? A cross-sectional study in China.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2025Article
- Modeling cervical cancer elimination: a pathway to inform policy decisions.Cancer biology & medicine · 2025Article
- Human papillomavirus vaccination willingness and influencing factors among women in China: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Preventive medicine reports · 2025Review
- Progress toward cervical cancer elimination: global disparities and China's contributions.Cancer biology & medicine · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Background: Several domestically-manufactured nonavalent HPV vaccine candidates are in phase III clinical trials and their future availability may address the current dilemma of insufficient supply and high price of the overseas-manufactured nonavalent HPV vaccine in China. We compare the population-level effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of switching to nonavalent HPV vaccination in China. Methods: We used a previously validated transmission model to project the lifetime costs and effectiveness of five same-vaccine and two mixed-vaccine strategies. Nonavalent HPV vaccines were assumed to be available and meet the production requirements for national vaccination between 2030 and 2050. All women living or projected to be born in China during 2023-2100 were considered. We adopted a societal perspective and determined optimal strategies using cost-effectiveness efficiency frontiers. Findings: Under our pricing assumptions, switching to nonavalent vaccination was always cost-saving compared with maintaining the current bivalent vaccination programme, irrespective of the screening scenarios and the year when nonavalent vaccine was assumed to become available (status quo screening: net cost saving $2589-5211 million; improved screening: net cost saving $1852-3789 million). In the same-vaccine strategies, the optimal strategy changed from "routine nonavalent HPV vaccination with catch-up to age 18" to "switching from bivalent to nonavalent HPV vaccination" if nonavalent vaccination is available after 2035. Compared with the optimal same-vaccine strategy, adopting mixed schedules with bivalent and nonavalent vaccines would further save $1336-4280 million net costs and gain 87,000-833,000 QALYs, depending on the screening scenario and the year when nonavalent vaccine becomes available. Interpretation: Switching from bivalent to nonavalent HPV vaccination is likely to be cost-saving and have a significant impact on reducing the cervical cancer burden in China. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-031449 and INV-003174) and CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS) (2021-I2M-1-004).
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.