Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40059975›Full record

ArticleJAMIA open2025

Aligning prediction models with clinical information needs: infant sepsis case study.

Lusha Cao, Aaron J Masino, Mary Catherine Harris, Lyle H Ungar, Gerald Shaeffer, Alexander Fidel, Elease McLaurin, Lakshmi Srinivasan, Dean J Karavite, Robert W Grundmeier

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in JAMIA open, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Lusha CaoDepartment of Biomedical and Health Informatics, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA 19146, United States.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6157-6893
Aaron J MasinoSchool of Computing, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634, United States.
Mary Catherine HarrisDivision of Neonatology, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA 19104, United States.
Lyle H UngarDepartment of Computer and Information Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, United States.
Gerald ShaefferDepartment of Biomedical and Health Informatics, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA 19146, United States.
Alexander FidelDepartment of Biomedical and Health Informatics, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA 19146, United States.
Elease McLaurinSchool of Medicine, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, United States.
Lakshmi SrinivasanDivision of Neonatology, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA 19104, United States.
Dean J KaraviteDepartment of Biomedical and Health Informatics, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA 19146, United States.
Robert W GrundmeierDepartment of Biomedical and Health Informatics, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA 19146, United States.

Funding

Statistical Methods for Gene Regulatory Analysis From Single Cell Genomics DataP20GM139769 · NIGMS · CLEMSON UNIVERSITY · PI ANHOLT, ROBERT R. H, ARNO, GAVIN · 2021 to 2025
$10.8M
Situation Awareness to Improve Infant Sepsis Recognition in the Presence of Clinical UncertaintyR01LM013526 · NLM · CHILDREN'S HOSP OF PHILADELPHIA · PI GRUNDMEIER, ROBERT W, HARRIS, MARY CATHERINE · 2021 to 2024
$1.5M
NIGMS NIH HHS P20 GM139769NLM NIH HHS R01 LM013526
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Objective: Sepsis recognition among infants in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) is challenging and delays in recognition can result in devastating consequences. Although predictive models may improve sepsis outcomes, clinical adoption has been limited. Our focus was to align model behavior with clinician information needs by developing a machine learning (ML) pipeline with two components: (1) a model to predict baseline sepsis risk and (2) a model to detect evolving (dynamic) sepsis risk due to physiologic changes. We then compared the performance of this two-component pipeline to a single model that combines all features reflecting both baseline risk and evolving risk. Materials and Methods: We developed prediction models (two-stage pipeline and a single model) using logistic regression and XGBoost trained on electronic healthcare record data of an NICU cohort (1706 observations from 1094 patients, with a 1:1 ratio of cases to controls). We used nested 10-fold cross-validation to evaluate model performance on predictions made 1 h ( Results: The single model (XGBoost) achieved the best performance with a sensitivity of 0.77 (0.74, 0.80), specificity of 0.83 (0.80, 0.85), and positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.82 (0.79, 0.84), at 1 h prior to clinical sepsis recognition ( Discussion: Our findings highlight the challenges of aligning machine learning with NICU clinical decision-making processes. The two-stage pipeline, designed to mirror clinicians' reasoning, underperformed compared to the single model. Future work should explore integrating continuous physiological data to enhance real-time risk assessment. Conclusion: Although a pipeline model that separately estimates baseline and dynamic sepsis risk aligns with clinical information needs, at similar levels of specificity the observed sensitivity of the pipeline is inferior to that of a single model. Additional research is needed to better align model outputs with clinician information needs.

Indexed as

clinical decision supportmachine learningNewborn Intensive Care Unitssepsis

Identifiers

PMID40059975
PMCPMC11887542

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.