Assessing the impacts of mitigation and geoengineering intervention scenarios on Earth system dynamics and climatological variability with multimodal simulations.

Bradley A Gay, Lukas Mandrake, Kimberley R Miner, Charles E Miller

Abstract read

In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it

0cells of the map it votes in

0citing papers in PubMed

–field-weighted citation impact

1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Bradley A GayJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA. bradley.a.gay@jpl.nasa.gov.

Lukas MandrakeJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA.

Kimberley R MinerJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA.

Charles E MillerJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA.

Funding

Oak Ridge Associated Universities 80NM0018D0004

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Given a world increasingly dominated by climate extremes, modifying the Earth's climate with large-scale geoengineering intervention is inevitable. However, geoengineering faces a conundrum: forecasting the consequences of climate intervention accurately in a system for which we have incomplete observations and an imperfect understanding. We evaluate the global response and potential implications of mitigation and intervention deployment by utilizing CRU TS4.08 observations, ERA5 reanalysis data, and CMIP6 scenario-based UKESM0-1-LL simulations. From 1950 to 2022, global weighted mean surface temperature (Tsurf) and total precipitation (P) rose by 1.37[Formula: see text]0.48 °C and 0.05[Formula: see text]0.57 mm day-1. Significant regional Tsurf anomalies and erratic interannual variability of P were revealed, with ranges from 7.63 °C in Greenland and northern Siberia to -2.38 °C in central Africa and 1.17 mm day-1 in southern Alaska to -1.20 mm day-1 in Colombia and east Africa. Collectively, mitigation and intervention simulations tended to overestimate the variability and magnitude of Tsurf and P, exhibiting substantial regional discrepancies and scenario-specific heterogeneity when estimating atmospheric methane concentration ([CH

Indexed as

Carbon cycleClimate changeCMIP6Earth observationsEarth system modelGeoengineering

Identifiers

PMID40059127

DOI10.1038/s41598-025-91195-6

PMCPMC11891324

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata

LicenceCC BY-NC-ND

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.