Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40053360›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2025

Scaling language model size yields diminishing returns for single-message political persuasion.

Kobi Hackenburg, Ben M Tappin, Paul Röttger, Scott A Hale, Jonathan Bright, Helen Margetts

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Scaling language model size yields diminishing returns for single-message political persuasion.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Kobi HackenburgOxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2JD, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-2071-1726
Ben M TappinDepartment of Psychological and Behavioural Science, The London School of Economics and Political Science, London WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-3826-8016
Paul RöttgerDepartment of Computing Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy.
Scott A HaleOxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2JD, United Kingdom.
Jonathan BrightOxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2JD, United Kingdom.
Helen MargettsOxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2JD, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-4597-8283

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Large language models can now generate political messages as persuasive as those written by humans, raising concerns about how far this persuasiveness may continue to increase with model size. Here, we generate 720 persuasive messages on 10 US political issues from 24 language models spanning several orders of magnitude in size. We then deploy these messages in a large-scale randomized survey experiment (

Indexed as

LanguageModels, TheoreticalPersuasive CommunicationPoliticsHumansAI safetyhuman–AI interactionlarge language modelspersuasionpolitical communication

Identifiers

PMID40053360
PMCPMC11912392

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.