ArticleNature communications2025
Assessing the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium using perturbation analysis.
Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Redefining and estimating the early-phase reproduction ratio for epidemic outbreaks in spatially structured populations.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Counterfactual evaluation of elementary and secondary school policies in the COVID-19 pandemic.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Evaluating COVID-19 vaccine allocation policies using Bayesian m-top exploration.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Dynamic shift in the dominant transmission route of clade Ib monkeypox virus across networks with sexual and nonsexual contacts.Science advances · 2026Article
- Assessing the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium using perturbation analysis.Nature communications · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
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Abstract
Understanding the evolving role of different age groups in virus transmission is essential for effective pandemic management. We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium from November 2020 to February 2022, focusing on age-specific patterns. Using a next generation matrix approach integrating social contact data and simulating population susceptibility evolution, we performed a longitudinal perturbation analysis of the effective reproduction number to unravel age-specific transmission dynamics. From November to December 2020, adults in the [18, 60) age group were the main transmission drivers, while children contributed marginally. This pattern shifted between January and March 2021, when in-person education resumed, and the Alpha variant emerged: children aged under 12 years old were crucial in transmission. Stringent social distancing measures in March 2021 helped diminish the noticeable contribution of the [18, 30) age group. By June 2021, as the Delta variant became the predominant strain, adults aged [18, 40) years emerged as main contributors to transmission, with a resurgence in children's contribution during September-October 2021. This study highlights the effectiveness of our methodology in identifying age-specific transmission patterns.
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