Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40044452›Full record

ArticleWorld journal of surgery2025

Risk of Cancer Recurrence Exerts the Strongest Influence on Choice Between Active Surveillance and Thyroid Surgery as Initial Treatment for Low-Risk Thyroid Cancer: Results of a Discrete Choice Experiment.

Jacob Hampton, Gavin Cooper, Laura Wall, Christopher Rowe, Nicholas Zdenkowski, Elizabeth Fradgley, Julie Miller, Jenny Gough, Scott Brown, Christine O'Neill

Abstract read
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Article in World journal of surgery, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Jacob HamptonSurgical Services John Hunter Hospital, Newcastle, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-1198-8670
Gavin CooperSchool of Psychological Sciences, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia.
Laura WallSchool of Psychological Sciences, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia.
Christopher RoweSchool of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia.
Nicholas ZdenkowskiSchool of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia.
Elizabeth FradgleySchool of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia.
Julie MillerDepartment of Surgery, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia.
Jenny GoughDepartment of Surgery, Wesley Hospital, Brisbane, Australia.
Scott BrownSchool of Psychological Sciences, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia.
Christine O'NeillSurgical Services John Hunter Hospital, Newcastle, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-3122-8660

Funding

The authors received no specific funding for this work.
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTreatment options for low-risk differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) include active surveillance (AS), hemithyroidectomy (HT), or total thyroidectomy (TT). Improved understanding of patient values and preferences is required to inform shared decision-making. This study examined factors influencing patient treatment preferences and trade-offs for low-risk DTC.

methodsAdult participants with benign thyroid nodules or low-risk DTC completed an online discrete choice experiment (DCE). Utilizing the scenario of a 50-year-old person with a small solitary DTC, participants chose between three unlabeled treatment options (representing AS, HT, and TT). Risk profiles varied across 5 domains: voice change, thyroid hormone supplementation, hypocalcaemia, chance of future thyroid surgery, and 10-year risk of cancer recurrence. Participants self-reported demographics, disease factors, and answered a decisional regret scale. A conditional logit model was utilized.

resultsThe DCE was completed by 143 patients across three sites. The conditional logit model demonstrated that participants preferred AS (49%) over TT (29%) or HT (22%). All five domains influenced choices (all p < 0.001), but perceived risk of cancer recurrence exerted most influence. Cancer survivors chose AS less often than those with benign disease (46% vs. 57%), driven by perceived risks of further surgery and cancer recurrence. As the perceived risk of cancer recurrence increased, more participants preferred HT over AS.

conclusionThis study demonstrates that when blinded to the actual treatment, patients prefer the trade-offs associated with AS rather than TT or HT. Perceived risk of cancer recurrence exerted the greatest influence. Accurate risk stratification for cancer recurrence is critical to shared decision-making.

Indexed as

Choice BehaviorNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalPatient PreferenceThyroidectomyThyroid NeoplasmsWatchful WaitingAdultAgedFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRisk Assessmentactive surveillancediscrete choice experimentthyroid cancerthyroid surgery

Identifiers

PMID40044452
PMCPMC12058448

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.