Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40038529›Full record

ArticleNature food2025

Climate change threatens crop diversity at low latitudes.

Sara Heikonen, Matias Heino, Mika Jalava, Stefan Siebert, Daniel Viviroli, Matti Kummu

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature food, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Wild vegetables contribute to improving the diversity and sustainability of vegetable diets in China.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  10. Climate change drives a decline in global grazing systems.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Analyses of Antioxidative Response in Tomato (Antioxidants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Review
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Sara HeikonenAalto University, Department of Built Environment, Espoo, Finland. sara.heikonen@aalto.fi.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3469-9801
Matias HeinoAalto University, Department of Built Environment, Espoo, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-7756
Mika JalavaAalto University, Department of Built Environment, Espoo, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4133-7462
Stefan SiebertUniversity of Göttingen, Department of Crop Sciences, Göttingen, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9998-0672
Daniel ViviroliUniversity of Zürich, Department of Geography, Zürich, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1214-8657
Matti KummuAalto University, Department of Built Environment, Espoo, Finland. matti.kummu@aalto.fi.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5096-0163

Funding

Academy of Finland (Suomen Akatemia) 339834Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation) 450058266EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (H2020 Excellent Science - European Research Council) 819202Suomen Akatemia | Strategic Research Council (Strategisen Tutkimuksen Neuvosto) 365512
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Climate change alters the climatic suitability of croplands, likely shifting the spatial distribution and diversity of global food crop production. Analyses of future potential food crop diversity have been limited to a small number of crops. Here we project geographical shifts in the climatic niches of 30 major food crops under 1.5-4 °C global warming and assess their impact on current crop production and potential food crop diversity across global croplands. We found that in low-latitude regions, 10-31% of current production would shift outside the climatic niche even under 2 °C global warming, increasing to 20-48% under 3 °C warming. Concurrently, potential food crop diversity would decline on 52% (+2 °C) and 56% (+3 °C) of global cropland. However, potential diversity would increase in mid to high latitudes, offering opportunities for climate change adaptation. These results highlight substantial latitudinal differences in the adaptation potential and vulnerability of the global food system under global warming.

Indexed as

BiodiversityClimate ChangeCrops, AgriculturalGlobal Warming

Identifiers

PMID40038529
PMCPMC12018264

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.