Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40038271›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Hot season gets hotter due to rainfall delay over tropical land in a warming climate.

Fengfei Song, Hongqiang Dong, Lixin Wu, L Ruby Leung, Jian Lu, Lu Dong, Peili Wu, Tianjun Zhou

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Fengfei Song *Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China. songfengfei@ouc.edu.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3004-1749
Hongqiang Dong *Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0003-3562-6839
Lixin WuFrontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4694-5531
L Ruby LeungAtmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3221-9467
Jian LuAtmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8245-6930
Lu DongFrontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4942-8115
Peili WuMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7908-7062
Tianjun ZhouLASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5829-7279

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 42175029National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 42475029
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Tropical land generally experiences the hottest period (spring) in a year just before the onset of wet season. Previous studies suggested that in a warming climate, the wet season would come later, but its origin is debated and its impact on temperature remains unknown. Here, we find that the warming of hot season would be amplified under global warming, and refer to it as "hot-season-gets-hotter" phenomenon. The amplified hot season warming is closely tied to the amplified warming of hot temperature percentiles. The hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon is mainly due to the rainfall delay and most evident in the Amazon, where spring is warming by almost 1 K more than the annual mean and the 99th percentile temperatures are warming ~30% more than the mean by the end of 21st century in a high emission scenario. Comparing experiments with and without land-atmosphere coupling, it is further found that the rainfall delay is initially driven by the enhanced effective atmospheric heat capacity and then substantially amplified by positive soil moisture-atmosphere feedback. In the satellite period, observations consistently show that the hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon has already emerged along with the rainfall delay in the Amazon. Intensified hot and dry spring climate can enhance risks of drought, heatwaves and wildfires, threatening the Amazon forest and habitats in the tropics.

Identifiers

PMID40038271
PMCPMC11880391

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.