Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40036886›Full record

Trial reportThe Journal of infectious diseases2025

Estimating the Serotype-Specific Association Between the Concentration of Vaccine-Induced Serum Antibodies and Protection Against Pneumococcal Colonization.

Anabelle Wong, Joshua L Warren, Laura Fitch, Stephanie Perniciaro, Ron Dagan, Daniel M Weinberger

Abstract readRandomized Controlled Trial
In one paragraph

Trial report in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Anabelle WongInfectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology, Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-5421-8692
Joshua L WarrenDepartment of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6274-6970
Laura FitchPublic Health Modeling Unit, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4734-5087
Stephanie PerniciaroPublic Health Modeling Unit, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3146-2182
Ron DaganThe Shraga Segal Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Genetics, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel.ORCID 0000-0002-8888-1046
Daniel M WeinbergerPublic Health Modeling Unit, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1178-8086

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation INV-065870
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) offer indirect protection by reducing pneumococcal colonization in the vaccinated children and thus transmission. As higher-valency PCVs may trigger a weaker immune response, it is important to understand how differences in immunogenicity between PCVs translate to effectiveness against colonization.

methodsWe estimated the serotype-specific relationship between the concentration of vaccine-induced serum immunoglobulin G (IgG) and protection against colonization using a hierarchical Bayesian model with the longitudinal data from a randomized controlled trial. We then combined these estimates with the summary-level immunogenicity data (geometric mean concentrations and 95% confidence intervals) from head-to-head clinical trials comparing 13-valent versus 7-valent PCV (PCV13 vs PCV7), 15-valent PCV (PCV15) versus PCV13, and 20-valent PCV (PCV20) versus PCV13 to infer the relative effectiveness of higher-valency PCVs against colonization.

resultsThe hierarchical Bayesian model predicted that the risk of colonization increased as serum IgG decreased, and the association differed by serotype. Our approach estimated higher-valency PCVs to have lower vaccine effectiveness against colonization with some serotypes: 14 and 23F across comparisons; 4 when comparing PCV13 with PCV7 and PCV20 with PCV13; 5, 6A, 6B 7F, 19A, and 19F when comparing PCV15 and PCV20 with PCV13; and 1, 9V, and 18C when comparing PCV20 with PCV13.

conclusionsThese findings suggest that while new PCVs might provide sufficient protection against disease, protection against transmission might be somewhat reduced for some serotypes. The overall impact should be evaluated in the local context, and further monitoring is critical to evaluate the impact of these changes in the coming years.

Indexed as

Antibodies, BacterialPneumococcal InfectionsPneumococcal VaccinesStreptococcus pneumoniaeBayes TheoremChild, PreschoolHumansImmunoglobulin GInfantSerogroupVaccines, ConjugateAntibodies, BacterialImmunoglobulin GPneumococcal VaccinesVaccines, Conjugatehierarchical Bayesian modelimmunogenicitynasopharyngeal colonizationpneumococcal vaccinevaccine efficacy

Identifiers

PMID40036886
PMCPMC12308679

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.