ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2026
Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Outcomes in the United States: A Bayesian Analysis.
Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- COVID-19 as a Potential Trigger for Tuberculosis: Insights From a Large-Scale Japanese Insurance Database Analysis.Journal of general and family medicine · 2026Article
- Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis epidemiology in California, Florida, New York, and Texas.Annals of the American Thoracic Society · 2026Article
- Disparities in testing for latent tuberculosis infection in a large US integrated healthcare system.Public health · 2026Article
- COVID-19 pandemic changes in social behavior relevant for transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.BMC research notes · 2026Article
- HIV Remains a Risk Factor for Unfavorable Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes in the Era of Universal Access to Antiretroviral Therapy in Botswana.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundTuberculosis (TB) notifications and deaths in the United States fluctuated substantially during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We analyzed multiple data sources to understand the factors contributing to these changes and estimated future TB trends.
methodsWe identified 4 mechanisms potentially contributing to observed TB trends during 2020-2023: immigration, respiratory contact rates, rates of accurate diagnosis and treatment initiation, and mortality rates for persons experiencing TB disease. We employed a Bayesian approach to synthesize evidence on how these mechanisms changed during the pandemic and how they might have combined to produce observed 2020-2023 TB data, using a transmission-dynamic model to link mechanisms to TB outcomes. We also simulated a no-pandemic-counterfactual scenario that assumed mechanisms followed pre-pandemic trends. We estimated TB outcomes associated with the pandemic until 2035 to capture lagged effects. We evaluated additional scenarios to estimate the individual effect of each mechanism.
resultsOver 2020-2035, we estimate an additional 2784 (95% uncertainty interval: 2164-3461) TB notifications and 1138 (1076-1201) TB deaths in the United States associated with changes occurring during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mechanisms had offsetting effects-decreases in TB diagnosis rates led to more TB deaths and notifications, while reductions in contact rates reduced TB deaths and notifications. Immigration changes initially reduced TB deaths, but increased deaths and notifications over time. Higher TB mortality rates increased TB deaths but decreased TB notifications.
conclusionsAlthough direct impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic occurred between 2020 and 2023, these changes may continue to influence TB incidence and mortality in future years.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.