ArticleEcology and evolution2025
Spatiotemporal Distribution of Wine Grape Under Climate Change in Northwestern China.
Article in Ecology and evolution, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
The favorable terroir of China's northwest region provides an ideal environment for the cultivation and thriving growth of grapes. However, climate change threatens to alter the optimal grape-growing regions, presenting considerable challenges to the local wine making industry. To enhance the utilization of regional climate resources and refine the wine grape industry's spatial distribution, this study assessed the performance of nine climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in Northwestern China, simulated the future spatiotemporal distribution of wine grape. Results showed that EC-Earth3 performed well in simulating temperature, precipitation, and interannual changes. Under the historical periods (1980-2014), the highly suitable areas for wine grapes were predominantly found in the eastern foothills of Helan Mountain in Ningxia, along the Yellow River in Wuhai and Linhe of Inner Mongolia, along the Qilian Mountains in Wuwei, Zhangye and Jiayuguan of Gansu, and along rivers and oases in the northern foothills of Tianshan Mountains, Ili River Valley, Tuha Basin, Yanqi Basin, Aksu, Muzart, and Kashgar of Xinjiang. Compared with historical periods, the highly and moderately suitable areas were expected to expand under SSP245 and SSP585. Nevertheless, the overall pattern of spatial distribution was not anticipated to experience substantial alterations. In the next 50 years (2055-2085), the suitable areas under SSP245 scenario would be higher than SSP585. Precipitation from July to September (
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