ArticleNaunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology2025
Long-term forecasting and evaluation of medicine consumption for the ATC class H with a focus on thyroid hormones in OECD countries using ARIMA models.
Article in Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Comparison of essential drug lists: concordance, differences, and the need for core lists in times of crisis.Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology · 2026Article
- Antidepressant drug use in Europe: past consumption, prescribing patterns and forecast until 2030.International journal of clinical pharmacy · 2026Article
- US Food and Drug Administration black box warnings: Characteristics of drug classes and adverse effects.The Journal of pharmacology and experimental therapeutics · 2026Article
- Problems associated with the ATC system of drug classification.Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology · 2026Article
- Determinants of prescribing behaviour of antibacterial drugs in Europe and use of appropriate nomenclature in the literature.Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology · 2026Review
- Evidence of lithium underuse in bipolar disorder: analysis of lithium and antipsychotic consumption, prediction of future trends, regional disparities and indicators of rational and inappropriate use in Europe.Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology · 2025Article
- AWaRe classification analysis for European countries with ARIMA forecasts to assess prescribing patterns and 'One Health' targets.Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology · 2025Article
- Most European countries will miss EU targets on antibacterial use by 2030: historical analysis of European and OECD countries, comparison of community and hospital sectors and forecast to 2040.Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology · 2025Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
Thyroid hormones are among the most prescribed medicines. In many countries, there are shortages combined with evidence of overuse and irrational prescribing. An analysis was conducted for ATC class H with a focus on thyroid hormones for OECD countries. This study aims to evaluate prescribing behaviours, forecast long-term developments and promote rational prescribing behaviour. The ARIMA(2,1,2) (autoregressive integrated moving average) model successfully predicted the future for 30 OECD countries and the non-OECD country Croatia until 2040. An upward trend is forecast for 18 countries, including Austria (+ 5.7%), Chile (+ 220.0%), Czechia (+ 52.8%), Denmark (+ 15.6%), Estonia (+ 87.8%), Greece (+ 238.7%), Hungary (+ 5.7%), Iceland (+ 18.6%), Italy (+ 42.9%), Latvia (+ 83.7%), Lithuania (+ 131.2%), Portugal (+ 106.7%), Slovakia (+ 182.1%), Slovenia (+ 57.4%), Spain (+ 162.8%), Turkey (+ 168.7%), the United Kingdom (+ 138.1%) and Croatia (+ 190.6%). A downward trend is forecast for 13 countries, including Australia (-3.4%), Belgium (-38.8%), Canada (-95.1%), Costa Rica (-79.5%), Finland (-14.7%), France (-100.0%), Germany (-16.4%), Israel (-21.6%), Korea (-100.0%), Luxembourg (-100.0%), the Netherlands (-35.9%), Norway (-23.6%) and Sweden (-43.6%). The reliability and accuracy of the forecasts varies, being influenced by data quality. While a downward trend is favoured, an upward trend is seen as problematic. Increasing trends predominate in Southern and Eastern Europe and Latin America, while decreasing trends predominate in Northern and Western Europe and the Asia-Pacific Region. Some external factors affect all countries, like an increasing prevalence of thyroid disease. There is evidence of cultural influences on prescribing behaviour. While there is evidence of inappropriate use in countries where prescriptions are predicted to increase, measures to restrict the use of thyroid hormones are more common in countries with a recently reported and predicted declining trend.
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