ArticleFrontiers in public health2025
Age-period-cohort analysis and prediction of tuberculosis trends in China-based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021 data.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- The epidemiology of tuberculosis infection and the Human Development Index (HDI) in Iran between 1990-2021: secondary analysis of the global burden of disease.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Tuberculosis: An Ongoing Global Threat.Advances in experimental medicine and biology · 2026Review
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6 authors.
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Abstract
Background: This study explores the epidemic trend of tuberculosis (TB) in China from 1990 to 2021, analyzes its relationship with age-period-cohort factors from 1992 to 2021, and predicts the development trend of TB in China from 2022 to 2046. Methods: Annual Percent Change (APC), Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) and 95% confidence interval ( Results: In 2021, it is estimated that there are 617,700 incidence cases of TB, 37,300 deaths and 1,375,500 DALYs cases in China, and the corresponding number of male cases is higher than that of female cases. From 1990 to 2021, the number of TB incidence, deaths and DALYs, as well as ASIR, ASDR and ASR of DALYs in China decreased year by year. The AAPC of ASIR, ASDR and ASR of DALYs were -3.33, -7.28% and -6.77%, respectively, all Conclusion: The APC model shows that the earlier the contemporary people are born, the older the age, the higher the risk of disease. APC and BAPC models predict that the ASR of TB in China will decrease year by year, but men and the older adult are still at high risk of TB burden in China. It is recommended to strengthen the screening of TB patients in key populations, especially in the older adult.
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