Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40023984›Full record

ArticleOral oncology2025

Evaluation of a comprehensive set of normal tissue complication probability models for patients with head and neck cancer in an international cohort.

Suzanne P M de Vette, Maria I van Rijn-Dekker, Lisa Van den Bosch, Kylie Keijzer, Hendrike Neh, Hung Chu, Yan Li, Mark L Frederiks, Hans Paul van der Laan, Jolien Heukelom and 9 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Oral oncology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. A multi-toxicity deep learning approach for normal tissue complication probability modelling in head and neck cancer patients receiving radiotherapy.Radiotherapy and oncology : journal of the European Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology · 2026
    Article
  6. Deep learning NTCP model for late dysphagia after radiotherapy for head and neck cancer patients based on 3D dose, CT and segmentations.Radiotherapy and oncology : journal of the European Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology · 2025
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Suzanne P M de VetteDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: s.p.m.de.vette@umcg.nl.
Maria I van Rijn-DekkerDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: m.i.van.rijn-dekker@umcg.nl.
Lisa Van den BoschDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: l.g.l.j.van.den.bosch@umcg.nl.
Kylie KeijzerDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands; Department of Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: k.keijzer@umcg.nl.
Hendrike NehDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: h.neh@umcg.nl.
Hung ChuDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: d.h.chu@rug.nl.
Yan LiDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: y.li05@umcg.nl.
Mark L FrederiksDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: m.l.frederiks@umcg.nl.
Hans Paul van der LaanDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: h.p.van.der.laan@umcg.nl.
Jolien HeukelomDepartment of Radiation Oncology, MAASTRO, University of Maastricht, Maastricht, the Netherlands. Electronic address: jolien.heukelom@maastro.nl.
Peter van LuijkDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: p.van.luijk@umcg.nl.
Arjen van der SchaafDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: a.van.der.schaaf@umcg.nl.
Roel J H M SteenbakkersDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: r.steenbakkers@umcg.nl.
Nanna M SijtsemaDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: n.m.sijtsema@umcg.nl.
Katherine A HutchesonDepartment of Radiation Oncology, the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA; Department of Head and Neck Surgery, the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA. Electronic address: karnold@mdanderson.org.
Clifton D FullerDepartment of Radiation Oncology, the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA. Electronic address: CDFuller@mdanderson.org.
Johannes A LangendijkDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: j.a.langendijk@umcg.nl.
Amy C MorenoDepartment of Radiation Oncology, the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA. Electronic address: AKMoreno@mdanderson.org.
Lisanne V van DijkDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: l.v.van.dijk@umcg.nl.

Funding

Tumor Evolution and Metastasis ProgramP30CA016672 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF TX MD ANDERSON CAN CTR · PI Fabien Delerue · 1985 to 2026
$290.8M
Project 3: OPC-RADP01CA285249 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF TX MD ANDERSON CAN CTR · PI STEPHEN Y LAI · 2024 to 2026
$9.4M
Development of functional magnetic resonance imaging-guided adaptive radiotherapy for head and neck cancer patients using novel MR-Linac deviceR01DE028290 · NIDCR · UNIVERSITY OF TX MD ANDERSON CAN CTR · PI CHRISTODOULEAS, JOHN PAUL, FULLER, CLIFTON DAVID · 2019 to 2023
$4.3M
Longitudinal Spatial-Nonspatial Decision Support for Competing Outcomes in Head and Neck Cancer TherapyR01CA258827 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT CHICAGO · PI CANAHUATE, GUADALUPE, FULLER, CLIFTON DAVID · 2021 to 2025
$2.9M
SCH: Personalized Rescheduling of Adaptive Radiation Therapy for Head & Neck CancerR01CA257814 · NCI · RICE UNIVERSITY · PI FULLER, CLIFTON DAVID, SCHAEFER, ANDREW J · 2021 to 2024
$1.8M
Provider and Patient-generated Remote Oro-Dental Health Electronic Data Capture for Algorithmic Longitudinal Evaluation and Risk-Assessment (PROHEALER)K01DE030524 · NIDCR · UNIVERSITY OF TX MD ANDERSON CAN CTR · PI MORENO, AMY CATHERINE · 2022 to 2024
$479k
Hypoglossal neuropathy in the pathogenesis of radiation associated dysphagia (hRAD)R21CA273984 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF TX MD ANDERSON CAN CTR · PI HUTCHESON, KATHERINE ARNOLD, SANCHEZ TERRONES, BENJAMIN · 2023 to 2024
$387k
NCI NIH HHS P01 CA285249NCI NIH HHS P30 CA016672NCI NIH HHS R01 CA257814NCI NIH HHS R01 CA258827NCI NIH HHS R21 CA273984NIDCR NIH HHS K01 DE030524NIDCR NIH HHS R01 DE028290
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

background/purposeNormal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models can be used to guide radiation therapy (RT) decisions by estimating side-effect risks pretreatment to minimize (late) side-effects. Recently, a comprehensive individual toxicity risk (CITOR) profile of NTCP models addressing common side-effects in head and neck cancer (HNC) patients was developed. This study investigates the generalizability of these models in an international setting, with different treatment approaches and side-effect assessments, promoting their integration into more widespread clinical practice. MATERIALS/

methodsFrom a prospective registry study, 407 HNC patients were included who were treated with definitive RT with or without systemic therapy between 2015 and 2022. NTCP models predicting dysphagia, aspiration, xerostomia, sticky saliva, taste loss, speech problems, oral pain, and fatigue at 6 and 12 months after RT were evaluated. All side-effects were patient-rated using the MDASI-HN, except dysphagia which was reported by clinicians using the PSS-HN diet normalcy score. Model performance was appraised by discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration.

resultsCITOR models showed moderate-to-high performance in this cohort (mean AUC = 0.67[range = 0.55-0.80], moderate-to-good calibration). NTCP models for dysphagia, xerostomia, sticky saliva, and fatigue were the top performing models. Models for aspiration, taste loss and speech problems performed moderately well, which was partly explained by lower incidences.

conclusionDespite differences between the CITOR development and this evaluation cohort, including use of different side-effect scoring systems, most models exhibited moderate-to-high performance. This demonstrated that the dose-effect relations were generalizable. Therefore, this study supports further integration of these NTCP models in clinical practice.

Indexed as

Head and Neck NeoplasmsRadiation InjuriesAdultAgedAged, 80 and overCohort StudiesFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedProbabilityProspective StudiesXerostomiaComprehensive Individual Toxicity RiskHead and Neck cancerIndependent evaluationLate toxicityNormal Tissue Complication ProbabilityRadiation therapy

Identifiers

PMID40023984
PMCPMC11950982

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.