Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40023804›Full record

ArticleEmerging infectious diseases2025

Model-Based Analysis of Impact, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Tuberculosis Outbreak Investigations, United States.

Sourya Shrestha, Lucia Cilloni, Garrett R Beeler Asay, J Steve Kammerer, Kala Raz, Tambi Shaw, Martin Cilnis, Jonathan Wortham, Suzanne M Marks, David Dowdy

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Emerging infectious diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Sourya Shrestha
Lucia Cilloni
Garrett R Beeler Asay
J Steve Kammerer
Kala Raz
Tambi Shaw
Martin Cilnis
Jonathan Wortham
Suzanne M Marks
David Dowdy

Funding

NCHHSTP CDC HHS U38 PS004646
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Outbreak investigation is an essential component of tuberculosis (TB) control in the United States, but its epidemiologic impact and cost-effectiveness have not been quantified. We modeled outbreak investigation activities in the United States during 2023-2032 and estimated corresponding epidemiologic impact, economic costs (in 2022 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from the healthcare system perspective (cost per additional quality-adjusted life-year gained). We projected that outbreak investigations would result in 1,030,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 376,000-1,740,000) contacts investigated, leading to 4,130 (95% UI 1,420-7,640) TB diagnoses and 104,000 (95% UI 37,600-181,000) latent TB infection diagnoses, at a total cost of US $219 million (95% UI $80-$387 million). We estimated that 5,560 (95% UI 1,720-11,400) TB cases would be averted through early detection and treatment, and the incremental cost-effectiveness of outbreak investigations, compared with no outbreak investigations, was $27,800 per quality-adjusted life-year gained (95% UI $4,580-$68,700).

Indexed as

Cost-Benefit AnalysisDisease OutbreaksTuberculosisAdultHealth Care CostsHumansQuality-Adjusted Life YearsUnited Statesbacteriacost-effectiveness analysisTB modelingTB outbreak investigationtuberculosis and other mycobacteriaUnited States

Identifiers

PMID40023804
PMCPMC11878319

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.