ArticleVirology journal2025
Establishment and validation of a dynamic nomogram to predict short-term prognosis and benefit of human immunoglobulin therapy in patients with novel bunyavirus sepsis in a population analysis study: a multicenter retrospective study.
Article in Virology journal, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Standardized LDH-to-lymphocyte ratio improves early mortality prediction in severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome: A 15-day competing-risk bedside model.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Research progress on antiviral drugs and vaccines for severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Review
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveThis study aims to develop a dynamic nomogram model using machine learning to improve short-term prognosis prediction and identify patients who would benefit from intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) therapy.
methodsA multicenter retrospective study was conducted on 396 patients diagnosed with SFTS. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses identified significant predictors of mortality. Machine learning models, including Random Survival Forest, Stepwise Cox Modeling, and Lasso Cox Regression, were compared for their predictive performance. The optimal model, incorporating consciousness, LDH, AST, and age, was used to construct a dynamic nomogram. The nomogram's performance was validated in training, validation, and external test sets. Additionally, the impact of IVIG therapy on survival was assessed within high-risk groups identified by the nomogram.
resultsThe dynamic nomogram demonstrated excellent predictive performance with an AUC of 0.903 in the training set, 0.933 in the validation set, and 0.852 in the test set, outperforming SOFA and APACHE II scores. Calibration curves confirmed the model's accuracy. In the high-risk group, the hazard ratio (HR) for death for those who injected immunoglobulin versus those who did not was 0.569 (95% CI 0.330-0.982) in the nomogram model.
conclusionThe dynamic nomogram effectively predicts short-term prognosis and identifies the population that benefits from IVIG therapy in patients with novel bunyavirus sepsis. This tool can aid clinicians in risk stratification and personalized treatment decisions, potentially improving patient outcomes.
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