Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40021302›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2025

Prevalence of advanced HIV disease in sub-Saharan Africa: a multi-country analysis of nationally representative household surveys.

Dominik Stelzle, Ajay Rangaraj, Joseph N Jarvis, Nirina H Razakasoa, George Perrin, Daniel Low-Beer, Meg Doherty, Nathan Ford, Shona Dalal

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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  4. Simplifying CD4 Testing to Support Advanced HIV Disease Care.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Dominik StelzleGlobal HIV, Hepatitis and STIs Programmes, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Ajay RangarajGlobal HIV, Hepatitis and STIs Programmes, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Joseph N JarvisDepartment of Clinical Research, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Botswana Harvard Health Partnership, Gaborone, Botswana.
Nirina H RazakasoaGlobal HIV, Hepatitis and STIs Programmes, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; Regional Office for Africa, World Health Organization, Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo.
George PerrinRegional Office for Africa, World Health Organization, Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo.
Daniel Low-BeerGlobal HIV, Hepatitis and STIs Programmes, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Meg DohertyGlobal HIV, Hepatitis and STIs Programmes, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Nathan FordGlobal HIV, Hepatitis and STIs Programmes, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; Centre for Integrated Data and Epidemiological Research, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Shona DalalGlobal HIV, Hepatitis and STIs Programmes, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland. Electronic address: dalals@who.int.

Funding

World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAdvanced HIV disease (AHD) is a critical stage in the progression of HIV infection and is associated with heightened susceptibility to opportunistic infections, malignancies, and other life-threatening complications. Estimates of the burden of AHD in sub-Saharan Africa are scarce but are needed for programme planning which includes the allocation of resources and the monitoring of outcomes. The aim of the study was to assess the prevalence of and the number of people living with HIV with AHD.

methodsIn this nationally representative study, we analysed data from 13 Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) household surveys conducted between 2016 and 2021 to determine the proportion of adults living with HIV who have AHD (defined as CD4 count <200 cells per mm

findingsA total of 28 040 people living with HIV were included in this study from 13 PHIA surveys. 19 364 were females (weighted percentage 64·5%) and 8676 (35·5%) were males, and the median age of participants was 38 years (IQR 30-47). Pooled across the 13 countries, 9·8% (95% CI 9·3-10·3) had a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells per mm

interpretationDespite advances in ART that have transformed HIV into a manageable chronic condition, a substantial number of people continue to develop AHD. These figures highlight the need for urgent and innovative programmatic improvements in monitoring, prevention, testing, and diagnosis of AHD in the context of well-established and maturing ART programmes.

fundingNone.

Indexed as

HIV InfectionsAdolescentAdultAfrica South of the SaharaCD4 Lymphocyte CountFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceSurveys and QuestionnairesYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID40021302
PMCPMC11868778

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.