ArticleViruses2025
Investigating Mpox Strain Dynamics Using Computational and Data-Driven Approaches.
Article in Viruses, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- A novel mathematical modeling and optimal control analysis of monkeypox transmission incorporating double-dose vaccination strategies: Insights from the recent outbreak.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Influence of spatial connectivity on the spread of Mpox in Maï-Ndombe province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2025.International journal of health geographics · 2026Article
- Mpox Beyond Emergence: Scientific Advances, Persistent Inequities, and Future Directions.Viruses · 2026Article
- A Review of Epidemiological Modeling Studies on Monkeypox.China CDC weekly · 2026Article
- A fractional-order vaccination model to analyze the dynamics of Mpox Clade I and II with real data.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
This study explores Mpox transmission dynamics using a mathematical and data-driven epidemiological model that incorporates two viral strains, Clade I and Clade II. The model includes transmission pathways between humans and mammals and divides the human population into susceptible, exposed, infectious, hospitalized, and recovered groups. Weekly data from the WHO for Spain, Italy, Nigeria, and the DRC from 2022 to 2024 are used for model validation via non-linear least-squares fitting, with model performance assessed by Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). We conduct time-series analysis to detect trends and anomalies in Mpox cases, with scenario simulations examining strain-specific transmission and the basic reproduction number (R0). The mathematical model fit is compared with two statistical model fits to emphasize the importance of developing a model that incorporates Mpox strain. Mathematical analysis confirms the model's key properties, including positivity, boundedness, and equilibrium stability. Results underscore the importance of strain-specific dynamics and varying infection proportions for R0. This study combines mathematical rigor with empirical data to provide valuable insights into Mpox transmission and offers a framework for understanding multi-strain pathogens in diverse populations. Results from the simulation indicate that an increase in the effective contact rate leads to the dominance of the prevalent Mpox Clades in each country. Based on these findings, we recommend the implementation of strategies aimed at reducing the effective contact rate to control the spread of the virus strains.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.