Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40000824›Full record

ArticleCommunications biology2025

Viral genomic features predict Orthopoxvirus reservoir hosts.

Katie K Tseng, Heather Koehler, Daniel J Becker, Rory Gibb, Colin J Carlson, Maria Del Pilar Fernandez, Stephanie N Seifert

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Communications biology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. Pathogens and planetary change.Nature reviews. Biodiversity · 2025
    Article
  9. First Evidence of Spillover ofTransboundary and emerging diseases · 2025
    Article
  10. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Katie K TsengPaul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA.
Heather KoehlerSchool of Molecular Biosciences, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA.
Daniel J BeckerSchool of Biological Sciences, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4315-8628
Rory GibbCentre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK.
Colin J CarlsonDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale University School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6960-8434
Maria Del Pilar FernandezPaul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA. pilar.fernandez@wsu.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8645-2267
Stephanie N SeifertPaul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA. stephanie.seifert@wsu.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4397-6156

Funding

Emerging Infectious Diseases Research Center - East and Central AfricaU01AI151799 · NIAID · WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY · PI M KARIUKI NJENGA · 2020 to 2026
$10.4M
National Science Foundation (NSF) NSF DBI 2515340NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI151799U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | National Institutes of Health (NIH) U01AI151799
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Orthopoxviruses (OPVs), including the causative agents of smallpox and mpox have led to devastating outbreaks in human populations worldwide. However, the discontinuation of smallpox vaccination, which also provides cross-protection against related OPVs, has diminished global immunity to OPVs more broadly. We apply machine learning models incorporating both host ecological and viral genomic features to predict likely reservoirs of OPVs. We demonstrate that incorporating viral genomic features in addition to host ecological traits enhanced the accuracy of potential OPV host predictions, highlighting the importance of host-virus molecular interactions in predicting potential host species. We identify hotspots for geographic regions rich with potential OPV hosts in parts of southeast Asia, equatorial Africa, and the Amazon, revealing high overlap between regions predicted to have a high number of potential OPV host species and those with the lowest smallpox vaccination coverage, indicating a heightened risk for the emergence or establishment of zoonotic OPVs. Our findings can be used to target wildlife surveillance, particularly related to concerns about mpox establishment beyond its historical range.

Indexed as

Disease ReservoirsGenome, ViralOrthopoxvirusPoxviridae InfectionsAnimalsGenomicsHumansMachine Learning

Identifiers

PMID40000824
PMCPMC11862092

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.